The penultimate matchday of the 2026 FIFA World Cup European Qualifiers brings the Azzurri of Italy to Chișinău to face Moldova at the Zimbru Stadium. While this fixture on paper represents a significant mismatch, the stakes for Italy are monumentally high. Still nursing the scars of missing the previous two World Cups, the four-time champions are desperate to secure their ticket to the expanded 48-team tournament, an objective that currently hinges on a crucial race for the top spot in Group I.
For Italy, the equation is clear but challenging: they must win, and win convincingly, to maintain any faint hope of leapfrogging group leaders Norway and securing automatic qualification. They currently trail Norway by three points, but the real obstacle is the astonishing +16 goal difference advantage held by the Scandinavian side, primarily due to Erling Haaland's record-breaking campaign and a truly historic 11-1 victory over Moldova earlier in the group. This goal difference deficit means Italy are almost certainly destined for the gruelling play-offs in March, but the new coach, Gennaro Gattuso, will demand maximum points and a professional performance to build momentum and keep the mathematical possibility of direct qualification alive before the final-day showdown against Norway at San Siro.
For Moldova, the Tricolorii, this match is about restoring pride and showing progression under new management. Having suffered a national football tragedy with the record 11-1 defeat to Norway, which led to the resignation of their former coach, the team is now under the guidance of Lilian Popescu. Rock bottom of Group I with only one point to their name—a hard-fought draw against Estonia—the Moldovan team will be motivated to avoid another heavy defeat in front of their home crowd. Their strategy will undoubtedly focus on defensive solidity and a compact formation, aiming to frustrate the Italian attack and perhaps snatch a rare goal through a set-piece or a quick counter-attack.
Tactical Battleground: Italy's Resurgence vs. Moldova's Resilience
Under Gennaro Gattuso, Italy has shown signs of a significant resurgence, injecting a renewed sense of intensity and aggressive, direct attacking play into the squad. The team has won five successive qualifying matches, scoring 18 goals in the process, including an emphatic 3-0 victory over Israel. Gattuso has favoured a balanced approach, relying on the leadership of veterans like Francesco Acerbi and Giovanni Di Lorenzo in defence, while utilizing dynamic midfielders such as Davide Frattesi and Nicolò Barella (though Barella is suspended for this match) to execute a high press and link-up play.
The main attacking threat will come from in-form players like striker Mateo Retegui, who has impressed with his clinical finishing and work rate, and wingers like Riccardo Orsolini or Federico Chiesa, whose pace and dribbling ability will be crucial in breaking down a likely deep-lying Moldovan defence. However, the absence of key attacking options like the suspended Barella and the injured Moise Kean may force Gattuso to experiment, potentially leading to a slower start as the new combinations find their rhythm.
Moldova is expected to line up in a deep-set defensive shape, likely a 5-3-1-1 formation, prioritising numbers behind the ball. The key to their strategy will be captain and all-time top scorer Ion Nicolaescu, who will carry the burden of the team's counter-attacking aspirations almost single-handedly. The defensive discipline of the centre-backs and the work rate of the wing-backs, such as Oleg Reabciuk, will be critical in managing Italy's relentless pressure. The goal for Popescu's side is not just to defend but to deny Italy the early goals that could turn the match into a rout, a scenario which would further dent the confidence of a team already shaken by their previous results.
Historical Dominance and Head-to-Head Record (H2H)
The historical record offers little comfort to the Moldovan side. Italy has won all six of their previous meetings across all competitions, scoring 17 goals and conceding only three. This perfect record makes Moldova one of the few nations against whom the Azzurri boast a 100% winning rate. The most recent encounter, earlier in the qualification campaign, resulted in a controlled 2-0 victory for Italy in Reggio Emilia.
Despite this commanding history, the low-scoring nature of some of the past clashes, including the 2-0 scoreline in the reverse fixture, suggests that Moldova is capable of making it difficult for the giants. The key statistic often pointed out by betting analysts is that Moldova has managed to cover the +3 Asian Handicap line in a high percentage of their recent home games, indicating their capacity to avoid complete collapses, a trend they will desperately seek to continue against the odds-on favourites.
The Playoff Reality and the Path Forward
While Italy will be focused on a large win, the pragmatic reality is that their route to the World Cup is now heavily contingent on the play-offs. The team has already guaranteed at least a play-off spot thanks to their performance in the Nations League. The two-stage play-off system—a single-leg semi-final followed by a single-leg final—is treacherous, as evidenced by Italy's shock failures to qualify for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups via this route.
For Gattuso, this match is therefore not just about three points; it is a crucial preparatory step. It allows him to fine-tune his system, test the depth of his squad, and build the unshakable winning mentality that will be necessary to navigate the high-pressure knockout fixtures in March. A professional, dominant, and clinical performance in Chișinău is the best way to prove that the Azzurri are truly back on track for the world stage.
