The atmosphere in Oslo's Ullevaal Stadion is set to be electric as Norway takes on Estonia in a pivotal Group I match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup European Qualifiers. This fixture is far more than a routine group stage contest; for the Landslaget, it represents an opportunity to all but secure their long-awaited return to the global stage, ending nearly three decades of World Cup drought since 1998.
Norway currently leads Group I with a perfect win record, placing them in an exceptionally strong position ahead of their final two matches. Their phenomenal goal difference, largely powered by the sensational form of their star striker, gives them a massive cushion over second-placed Italy. A victory against Estonia, coupled with a favorable result in the group's other match, could confirm their direct qualification for the World Cup finals in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Estonia, the Sinisärgid, travel to Oslo with their qualification hopes already extinguished. Positioned towards the bottom of the group, their focus will be on delivering a determined performance to end their campaign on a positive note. For the Baltic nation, the challenge is clear: contain one of the most destructive attacks in European football and prevent a heavy defeat, aiming to improve on their previous qualifying campaign record.
The Erling Haaland Factor: A Record-Breaking Season
The central figure in this contest, and indeed the entire qualifying group, is Erling Haaland. The prolific Norwegian striker has been nothing short of extraordinary, scoring an astonishing 12 goals in the qualifiers so far. His remarkable scoring rate—more than most entire national teams have managed—means he is not only firing Norway towards the World Cup but is also within touching distance of breaking the all-time European qualifying goal record.
Estonia's defensive line, led by experienced players like captain Karol Mets, faces the unenviable task of neutralizing this unprecedented goal threat. In their previous meeting in Tallinn, only a second-half strike from Haaland separated the two sides in a 1-0 victory for Norway, demonstrating that Estonia has the capacity to frustrate them, at least temporarily. However, the home setting and Norway's desire for a comprehensive win to solidify their top spot suggest a more dominant performance is expected this time.
Norway's coach, Ståle Solbakken, will be keen to see his team's attacking wealth utilized fully. While Martin Ødegaard remains sidelined due to injury, the creative burden will fall to players like Oscar Bobb and Alexander Sørloth, who provide pace and support around Haaland. The Landslaget's confidence is sky-high, backed by eight wins in their last nine home games, often by comfortable two-goal margins or more.
Estonia's Defensive Challenge and Form
Estonia's qualifying campaign has been challenging, managing to secure only a single win and a draw, both against the group's lowest-ranked side, Moldova. Their recent form reflects this struggle, heading into the match with four losses and a draw in their last five competitive fixtures. Coach Jürgen Henn will prioritize defensive discipline and a compact shape, likely setting up to defend deep and frustrate the Norwegian attack for as long as possible.
The team will look to veterans like midfielder Konstantin Vassiljev and forward Rauno Sappinen to try and create limited opportunities, likely relying on set-pieces or quick breakaways. Given their recent struggles, which include heavy defeats to higher-ranked teams, their primary objective will be damage limitation against a Norwegian team that has demonstrated an almost insatiable hunger for goals.
Head-to-Head History and Match Prediction
In past encounters, Norway holds a clear historical advantage over Estonia. The two sides have met a handful of times since 2005, with Norway winning the majority of the fixtures, including the tight 1-0 win in the reverse fixture of this campaign. While Estonia secured a surprise victory in a friendly back in 2014, the current form and the stakes of a World Cup qualifier heavily favor the home side.
Given Norway's attacking firepower, dominant home form, and the pressure to secure qualification before the final matchday, a convincing victory is widely anticipated. Estonia's resilience may keep the score respectable in the early stages, but the relentless pressure from Haaland and his teammates is expected to be too much to contain over ninety minutes.
Prediction: Norway to win by a significant margin, potentially securing the necessary result to confirm their World Cup ticket
