The German Cup, the DFB Pokal, is famous for its propensity to deliver upsets, and the Round of 32 clash between 2. Bundesliga side SC Paderborn 07 and Bundesliga title contenders Bayer 04 Leverkusen embodies this magic. Set to take place at Paderborn’s Home Deluxe Arena, this fixture pits a high-octane, attacking underdog against arguably the most formidable team in German football outside of Bayern Munich, managed by the tactically brilliant Xabi Alonso.
The Context: A Familiar Cup Challenge
While Leverkusen has established itself as an elite European side, this is not a new matchup. The teams met relatively recently in the 2023/24 DFB Pokal Round of 16, a match where Leverkusen secured a professional 3-1 victory. However, that match was played at the BayArena. Moving the fixture to Paderborn's home ground, a stadium known for its intimidating atmosphere, immediately levels the playing field, making this a quintessential "cup fight" where form often matters less than fighting spirit.
For Leverkusen, the DFB Pokal represents a serious opportunity for silverware, especially under Xabi Alonso, who has transformed the club into a consistent force. For Paderborn, this is a chance to prove their quality against top-tier opposition and continue their cup journey, which has historically seen them cause significant headaches for Bundesliga clubs, including a notable run to the quarter-finals in 2017/18 and 2018/19.
SC Paderborn 07: The High-Pressing Challengers
Paderborn, under coach Lukas Kwasniok, is known for a fast, transitional style of football. They typically operate in a fluid formation, often resembling a 3-4-3 or a variant of a 3-5-2. Their primary tactical goal is to apply intense, high-up-the-pitch pressure to force turnovers in dangerous areas. When they win the ball, they look to go vertical immediately, bypassing the midfield to put their rapid forwards—such as Filip Bilbija, who has been productive in the cup—into scoring positions.
Paderborn’s recent form in the 2. Bundesliga has shown resilience and a strong attacking output, maintaining a competitive position in the middle third of the table. Importantly, their journey to this stage included an impressive upset victory over a Bundesliga side, proving they have the mental fortitude and tactical discipline to execute a spoiler role. Key to their success will be the performance of playmakers like Florent Muslija and their central defensive organisation, which must be flawless to handle the quality of Leverkusen's attack.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Alonso’s Strategic Control
Bayer Leverkusen enters this match as heavy favorites, despite a recent heavy defeat in the UEFA Champions League showing some potential vulnerability when facing the absolute European elite. Domestically, however, they are a machine. Alonso favors a 3-4-3 formation that prioritizes control, possession retention, and lethal attacking width.
The key tactical dynamic in this Leverkusen team is the role of the wing-backs, Jeremie Frimpong and Alejandro Grimaldo. Grimaldo, in particular, is both a defensive anchor and an attacking outlet, capable of scoring spectacular goals and delivering inch-perfect crosses. In midfield, Granit Xhaka provides stability and elite distribution, acting as the team’s heartbeat. Up front, the combination of Victor Boniface’s physical presence and goal-scoring instincts, coupled with the creative genius of Florian Wirtz (if fit), makes them devastating.
Their ability to withstand pressure is paramount. Alonso’s side is exceptionally good at playing out from the back, using sharp, short passes to draw the opposition press before exploiting the resulting space with long, diagonal balls to the advancing wing-backs. This precision is what Paderborn’s high press is designed to disrupt.
Tactical Key: Press vs. Play
The outcome of this match will hinge on one critical tactical battle: Can Paderborn's aggressive high press disrupt Leverkusen's build-up play?
Leverkusen's Midfield Resilience: If Xhaka, Exequiel Palacios, and the back three can successfully circulate the ball and bypass the initial Paderborn press, they will find huge spaces in the midfield and wide areas to exploit. Paderborn's commitment to high pressure means they leave gaps behind their first two lines of defense.
Paderborn's Transitions: Paderborn must be ruthless in transition. They will get fewer chances than they are accustomed to in the 2. Bundesliga, and players like Bilbija and Muslija must take any opportunity that arises on the counter-attack to punish Leverkusen's high defensive line.
The Starting XI Factor: Given Leverkusen's heavy schedule, Alonso is likely to rotate his squad. While this rotation introduces unpredictability, the depth of Leverkusen's squad—featuring players like Amine Adli, Adam Hložek, and Patrik Schick—still provides immense quality. Paderborn’s best chance comes if the rotated Leverkusen team lacks the cohesion of the regular starting XI.
Conclusion
While Paderborn offers the energetic, unpredictable challenge typical of an ambitious lower-league side in the cup, Bayer Leverkusen’s tactical discipline, elite quality, and recent experience overcoming this exact opponent make them strong favorites. Paderborn’s goal is to turn the game into a chaotic, end-to-end affair, while Leverkusen will seek to impose calm, controlled possession.
If Leverkusen plays to even 80% of their domestic potential, their superior quality and defensive organisation, even with squad rotation, should see them through. Expect Paderborn to score and make it tough, but ultimately, Alonso’s side should advance to the next round.
Predicted Scoreline: SC Paderborn 1 - 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
