Date: Wednesday, December 10, 2025 Competition: UEFA Champions League (League Phase) Venue: Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium, Baku, Azerbaijan
Match Context: Contrasting Fortunes
This Matchday 6 fixture offers a stark contrast between two clubs experiencing wildly different European campaigns. For Qarabag FK, this match represents a chance to cement an "unforgettable" run and potentially secure a favourable seeding in the knockout playoffs. For Ajax, it is a desperate attempt to salvage pride, end a historic losing streak, and avoid finishing the league phase as the competition's only team without a single point.
The match is played under the new league phase format, where all 36 teams are ranked in one table.
The Stakes
Team | Current Standing | Points (after 5 matches) | Goal Difference | Implication of Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Qarabag FK | 19th | 7 | -5 (8:13) | A win could elevate them into the 9th-16th positions, guaranteeing a seeded draw in the knockout playoffs. A draw or loss still sends them through, likely unseeded. |
Ajax | 36th (Bottom) | 0 | -15 (1:16) | The only team without a point. They are desperate for a win or even a draw to lift them off the bottom and end their record eight-match European losing streak. |
Form Guide & Key Statistics
Qarabag FK: Momentum and Home Strength
The Azerbaijani champions have been a major surprise, securing seven points from wins against Benfica and FC Copenhagen, plus a resilient 2-2 draw at home against Chelsea.
Home Fortress: Qarabag are unbeaten in their two European home ties this season (W1, D1) and carry a 10-match unbeaten streak across all competitions in Baku.
Attacking Threat: They have scored at least twice in each of their last four home European games.
Key Player: Winger Abdellah Zoubir and forward Leandro Andrade (who has scored 3 of their 8 Champions League goals) are central to Qarabag's counter-attacking and wide improvisation.
Ajax: Crisis in Amsterdam
Ajax's campaign has been nothing short of disastrous. They hold the unwanted record of being the only pointless team, having lost all five matches and conceded a competition-high 16 goals while scoring only once (a penalty). The crisis led to a coaching change, with Fred Grim taking over on an interim basis.
European Skid: Their eight-match European losing streak is the longest in the club's illustrious history.
Domestic Boost (Misleading): While they have won their last two Eredivisie matches, the results were unconvincing and often flattered by own goals or missed chances by opponents, indicating their systemic problems persist.
Availability Concerns: Ajax travel with significant injury concerns, especially around key players like Wout Weghorst and Kenneth Taylor.
Tactical Outlook and Prediction
Qarabag coach Gurban Gurbanov is expected to rely on defensive organisation and rapid transition surges, leveraging the pace of their wide players like Zoubir and Andrade. They will look to exploit Ajax's high defensive line and the fragility of their young back line.
Ajax, despite their struggles, must try to impose their typical possession-based game but are hampered by systemic issues and a confidence deficit. Caretaker coach Grim has acknowledged Qarabag's quality, stating they are a "good team" that can "play very tight at the back and then break in numbers."
This match is a classic tension: Qarabag's continuity and momentum versus Ajax's historical pedigree and desperation. Given Qarabag's fortress-like home form and Ajax's unprecedented crisis, the momentum is firmly with the hosts.
Predicted Score: Qarabag FK 2-1 Ajax Amsterdam Likely Scorers: Leandro Andrade (QAR), Abdellah Zoubir (QAR), Mika Godts (AJX)
