AC Milan vs. Fiorentina | Serie A | Pre Match
AC Milan vs. Fiorentina
AC Milan and Fiorentina, both entangled in a fierce multi-club tussle for European qualification spots, will lock horns at the San Siro on Saturday night in a Serie A showdown that carries profound implications for their respective seasons, with the Viola arriving in Milan boasting more points than their hosts for the first time since December 2017 and aiming to widen a four-point gap between the two sides. Milan, under the beleaguered stewardship of Sergio Conceição, are desperate to halt a alarming slide that has seen them plummet to ninth in the standings, nine points adrift of the coveted top four—a position that feels increasingly out of reach with just seven rounds left. Their midweek respite from league woes came in the form of a 1-1 draw in the Coppa Italia semi-final first leg against city rivals Inter Milan, a result that extended their unbeaten streak against the Nerazzurri to four matches this season. Tammy Abraham’s clinical finish had given Milan the lead, only for former Rossoneri star Hakan Çalhanoğlu to blast home a long-range equalizer, a moment that underscored Inter’s resilience and Milan’s inability to close out big games. Conceição owes a debt of gratitude to goalkeeper Mike Maignan, whose string of crucial saves kept the score level, preserving hope ahead of the second leg later this month. Yet, with their Serie A campaign teetering on the brink, Milan face an uphill battle to claw their way back into Europe, needing to overtake a raft of contenders—Juventus, Lazio, Bologna, Roma, and Fiorentina—while grappling with a fanbase growing restless under Conceição’s faltering reign, which has yielded four losses in six league games, a grim echo of Marco Giampaolo’s ill-fated tenure in 2019.
Fiorentina, by contrast, roll into the San Siro with momentum on their side, their 51 points already marking a strong season and a victory here potentially pushing them to their best tally at this stage since 2016, when they finished fifth. The Viola have turned their fortunes around after a shaky spell, securing vital wins over direct rivals Juventus and Atalanta either side of the international break—results that have kept them in the hunt for a top-four finish, just below the two Rome clubs. Their 2-1 triumph over Milan in October’s reverse fixture at the Artemio Franchi offers a blueprint for success, and a repeat would see them complete a league double over the Rossoneri for the first time in 24 years, a feat that would not only bolster their European credentials but also heap further misery on their hosts. Moise Kean has been the spearhead of their revival, his match-winning strike against Atalanta—a superb solo effort where he dispossessed an opponent at midfield and raced clear to score—highlighting his importance to Raffaele Palladino’s side. With 16 goals and three assists in Serie A, Kean is on the cusp of his 20th goal involvement of the campaign as he prepares for his 200th appearance in Europe’s top five leagues, a milestone that underscores his growing stature. Fiorentina’s ambitions extend beyond Serie A, with a Conference League quarter-final against NK Celje looming next week, but first, they must navigate this San Siro test—a venue where Milan have won their last four home games against the Viola, though that historical edge feels fragile given the hosts’ current disarray.
Milan’s struggles under Conceição have reached a critical juncture, with Sunday’s 2-1 defeat to title contenders Napoli exposing a team lacking cohesion and confidence, a far cry from the side that once dominated Italian football. The Portuguese manager’s position hangs by a thread, with special advisor Zlatan Ibrahimović and the Milan board reportedly eyeing a summer replacement, signaling the end of yet another short-lived tenure in the club’s dugout. Their ninth-place standing—nine points off fourth-placed Bologna—means even a victory over Fiorentina would leave them a point shy of the Viola, a sobering reality for a club accustomed to Champions League nights. Conceição faces a selection headache up top, torn between Santiago Giménez and Tammy Abraham, with the latter’s midweek goal against Inter tilting the scales in his favor. Rafael Leão remains a lock on the left flank, but Alex Jiménez’s suspension after the derby opens the door for Riccardo Sottil, Samuel Chukwueze, or a positional switch for Christian Pulisic from right to left. Injuries to Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Emerson Royal further strain Milan’s resources, though Yunus Musah’s expected recovery from illness offers a boost in midfield, where he’ll compete with Ismaël Bennacer and Tijjani Reijnders. Milan’s attack, once a strength, has sputtered—averaging just 1.5 goals per game in their last six league outings—while their defense, anchored by Maignan, has conceded 39 goals in 29 matches (10th in Serie A). Facing a Fiorentina side with momentum and a potent striker in Kean, Milan’s hopes of salvaging their season hinge on rediscovering the spark that has eluded them under Conceição’s faltering guidance.
Fiorentina, under Palladino, have found a rhythm that contrasts sharply with Milan’s malaise, their back-to-back wins over Juventus and Atalanta lifting spirits and solidifying their status as top-four dark horses. Kean’s form—16 goals, including that decisive strike against Atalanta—has been the catalyst, his blend of power and precision a nightmare for defenders. Supporting him, wing-back Robin Gosens, a former Inter man, is pushing to return from a minor knee injury that sidelined him against Atalanta, eager to haunt another Milan club at the San Siro. Andrea Colpani’s absence is a blow, but Palladino otherwise has a near-full squad, with the likes of Nicolás González, Jonathan Ikoné, and midfield maestro Albert Guðmundsson providing depth and flair. Fiorentina’s 47 goals in 29 matches (fourth in Serie A) outpace Milan’s 33 (ninth), while their 35 goals conceded (sixth) edge Milan’s 39, reflecting a team that balances attack and defense more effectively. Their shot stats—314 taken (eighth), 278 faced (eighth), +36 differential (eighth)—mirror Milan’s (322 taken, 266 faced, +56)—but the Viola’s recent efficiency trumps Milan’s wastefulness. Palladino will likely deploy a 4-2-3-1, with Kean up top, González and Ikoné on the wings, and Guðmundsson pulling strings, aiming to exploit Milan’s shaky backline, potentially featuring Fikayo Tomori and Matteo Gabbia. A Milan side reeling from four losses in six offers an opportunity, but the San Siro’s history of Fiorentina defeats looms large.
This clash pits Milan’s desperation against Fiorentina’s ambition, with the Rossoneri’s +6 goal differential (seventh) dwarfed by the Viola’s +12 (fifth), and a tactical duel between Conceição’s pragmatism and Palladino’s dynamism promising intrigue. Milan’s home edge—four straight wins over Fiorentina—clashes with their current form, suggesting a tight affair. A 2-1 Fiorentina win feels plausible—Kean and González striking, Abraham replying—but a 1-1 draw isn’t out of reach if Maignan stands tall again. For Milan, it’s a last-gasp bid to revive their European hopes; for Fiorentina, it’s a chance to cement their resurgence—a Serie A night brimming with stakes and subplots.
