Arsenal vs Man City | Premier League | Pre Match

A few months ago, most fans would have had Sunday’s clash between Arsenal and Manchester City circled in the diary as a potential title decider, a meeting between Mikel Arteta’s determined challengers and Pep Guardiola’s reigning champions. However, circumstances have shifted dramatically, altering the stakes for both teams.

Manchester City’s campaign took a severe hit following a knee injury to Rodri in the reverse fixture earlier in the season, a match that ended in a tense 2-2 draw. Without their midfield metronome, City’s title charge began to stutter, and their hopes of defending their Premier League crown have all but dissipated. Now, the primary focus for Guardiola’s men is securing a place in the UEFA Champions League for next season, a dramatic reduction in expectations for a team that has dominated English football in recent years.

For Arsenal, the title dream is still alive, but just barely. They enter Matchday 24 trailing Liverpool by six points, having played an extra game. The Gunners have no margin for error if they wish to keep pace with Jurgen Klopp’s high-flying Reds. Arteta’s side has been resilient, as demonstrated by their gritty 1-0 victory over Wolves last weekend. That match saw Myles Lewis-Skelly sent off late in the first half, only for João Gomes to receive a red card 20 minutes from time, leveling the playing field. Riccardo Calafiori emerged as the hero, scoring the decisive goal just minutes later.

Arsenal’s disciplinary record under Arteta remains a talking point. Since the Spaniard took over in December 2019, the Gunners have accumulated 19 red cards, more than any other team in the league. This statistic is somewhat misleading, though, as they rank just 23rd out of 27 teams for fouls per game (10.1), suggesting that their aggressive style is not necessarily reckless but often scrutinized more harshly.

Despite their occasional struggles, Arsenal has been in formidable form in recent months. They are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League matches (eight wins, five draws), collecting more points than any other team since Matchday 11 (29). This run is their longest without defeat under Arteta and the best since a 14-game unbeaten stretch under Unai Emery between August and December 2018.

The Gunners’ attack has faced challenges due to injuries to key players like Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus, forcing them to rely heavily on set-piece efficiency. Arsenal has scored 12 goals from set-pieces this season, the highest in the league (excluding penalties). However, they face a formidable test against City, who have conceded just two set-piece goals this term, the joint-lowest tally alongside Brentford. Interestingly, one of those goals was a Gabriel Magalhães header from a corner in the previous meeting between the two sides. In fact, half of Arsenal’s last ten goals against City have come from corners, highlighting a potential area of vulnerability for the visitors.

Arsenal will be without Jesus and Saka once again, while right-back Ben White remains unavailable. However, captain Martin Ødegaard returns to the fold after missing last weekend’s clash due to illness, offering a much-needed boost to the midfield. Meanwhile, Arsenal wrapped up their Champions League group-stage campaign with a 2-1 win over Girona, featuring a stunning strike from Ethan Nwaneri. City, on the other hand, must navigate the knockout play-offs after coming from behind to defeat Club Brugge 3-1 in a tense encounter at the Etihad.

Manchester City has shown signs of resurgence in the Premier League. They are unbeaten in their last six league matches, winning four and drawing two. Only Newcastle United (15) has collected more points than City’s 14 since Christmas Day, and Guardiola’s side has been prolific in front of goal, scoring 18 times in that period, more than any other team.

Historically, City has been nearly unstoppable in the second half of Premier League seasons. Since January 2023, they have lost just once in their last 40 league matches from January onwards (33 wins, six draws), with that sole defeat coming against Brentford on the final day of last season when the title had already been secured. Over the past two campaigns, City is unbeaten in 23 consecutive league games from January onwards (19 wins, four draws), scoring an astonishing 66 goals at an average of 2.9 per match.

Last week’s 3-1 victory over Chelsea saw City return to something close to their best, despite an early defensive lapse from debutant Abdukodir Khusanov. Erling Haaland and Phil Foden found the net alongside Josko Gvardiol, reinforcing City’s attacking prowess. Haaland, in particular, has rediscovered his form, scoring five goals in his last five Premier League appearances—two more than he managed in the previous 13 games. His recent efficiency is notable; after underperforming his expected goals (xG) tally by 5.2 over a 13-game stretch (three goals from 8.2 xG), he has outperformed his xG by 1.1 in his last five matches (five goals from 3.9 xG).

Foden has also hit peak form, emerging as City’s most consistent attacking threat in recent weeks. He scored more Premier League goals in January than any other player, netting six times from six shots on target. His clinical finishing places him in an elite group—only four other players have managed to score six or more goals while converting every shot on target in a single Premier League month: Jermain Defoe (March 2008), Dimitar Berbatov (December 2011), Sergio Agüero (August 2019), and Taiwo Awoniyi (May 2023).

Historically, Arsenal has struggled against City in the league, losing 12 consecutive matches between 2017 and 2023. However, the Gunners have turned the tide in recent encounters, going unbeaten in their last three meetings (one win, two draws). Arsenal’s 1-0 victory in this exact fixture last season marked a significant shift, and they now have a chance to win consecutive home league games against City for the first time since a four-match winning streak between 2005-06 and 2008-09.

The last meeting between the two teams was characterized by Arsenal’s defensive resilience, particularly after Leandro Trossard was sent off. City dominated possession but struggled to break down Arteta’s well-organized defensive setup. If Arsenal is to secure another victory, they will need a similar level of discipline and tactical awareness, especially given City’s ability to exploit even the smallest defensive lapses.

With both teams having much to prove, Sunday’s clash is set to be a defining moment in their respective campaigns. Arsenal must win to keep their title ambitions alive, while City will be eager to reaffirm their status as a dominant force and solidify their top-four position. Given the form of key players like Haaland and Foden, combined with Arsenal’s defensive resilience and set-piece efficiency, this promises to be another captivating chapter in the rivalry between Arteta and Guardiola.

A victory for Arsenal could reignite their title hopes, while a City triumph would reinforce their reputation as relentless finishers in the business end of the season. Regardless of the result, fans can expect a thrilling encounter between two of England’s most tactically astute and technically gifted teams.