The Ballon d'Or stands as the pinnacle of individual achievement in football, a prestigious award that transcends mere statistics to honor a player who has truly defined the year. As the football world looks back on a sensational 2024-2025 season, the race for the 2025 Ballon d'Or is one of the most compelling in recent memory. Unlike past years dominated by a single figure, this year's contest is a nuanced and complex debate, with multiple players staking a legitimate claim to football's ultimate individual prize. The final verdict will be a testament to a season marked by unexpected team triumphs, staggering individual performances, and the rise of a new generation of superstars.
The Core Principles of Winning the Ballon d'Or
To understand who might win the Ballon d'Or, it’s important to know the criteria. The award is decided by a panel of international journalists who evaluate a player's performance based on three key principles:
Individual Performance and Statistics: The sheer quality of a player’s play, including goals, assists, and their overall influence on the pitch.
Team Success and Trophies: The player’s crucial contribution to their team’s major title victories, with the Champions League and domestic league titles holding particular weight.
Overall Impact and Fair Play: The player’s character, influence, and fair play, which, while less quantifiable, can still be a factor in a close vote.
With these tenets in mind, let’s break down the leading candidates who have defined the 2024-2025 season and made a compelling case for football's highest honor.
The Top Contenders: A Detailed Breakdown
A long list of nominees is available, but the top contenders for the 2025 Ballon d'Or are clear. The race is dominated by players who excelled both individually and as part of a winning team.
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain)
If there is one name that has emerged as the clear front-runner, it is Ousmane Dembélé. The French winger, long considered a player of immense potential, delivered a season of staggering brilliance that culminated in Paris Saint-Germain's historic first-ever UEFA Champions League title. His stats for the season are exceptional: 33 goals and 15 assists in 49 appearances across all competitions. His impact was transformative, as he was a constant threat who used his pace and dazzling dribbling to cause chaos for defenses. Dembélé was not just a goalscorer but a creator, a decisive player in the biggest moments, and was rightfully named the UEFA Player of the Season. His performance in the Champions League final, a 5-0 demolition of Inter Milan, was a masterclass in attacking football, sealing his status as a pivotal figure in PSG’s triumph. For many, the Champions League trophy, combined with his individual flair, makes his case unassailable.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
While Dembélé has the Champions League, Mohamed Salah has built his case on the back of immense domestic dominance. He was the driving force behind Liverpool’s Premier League title victory. In a season where Liverpool returned to glory, Salah was the relentless engine of their attack. His remarkable numbers—29 goals and 18 assists—equaled the Premier League record for most goal involvements in a single campaign, a feat previously held by legends like Alan Shearer and Andy Cole. Salah's consistency, leadership, and record-breaking performances were instrumental in Liverpool’s success. His candidacy rests on his unwavering brilliance in the world's most competitive league.
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)
A new superstar has announced his arrival on the grandest stage. Lamine Yamal, the Barcelona sensation, had a season that defied all expectations for a player of his tender age. The 17-year-old winger was the spearhead of a Barcelona team that wrestled the La Liga title back from their rivals, Real Madrid. With an astonishing return of 18 goals and 25 assists in 55 appearances, Yamal demonstrated a maturity and talent far beyond his years. His decisive performances in the El Clásico victories over Real Madrid were instrumental in securing the title. His explosive skill, coupled with Barcelona's La Liga success, has made him a legitimate contender and the favorite for the Kopa Trophy for the best young player.
The Golden Shoe Winner and Other Candidates
Beyond the main front-runners, several other players had seasons that could garner significant votes.
Kylian Mbappé's first season with Real Madrid was a paradox of individual brilliance and team struggles. While Real Madrid had a disappointing campaign, finishing second in La Liga and exiting the Champions League in the quarterfinals, Mbappé's individual numbers were staggering. He finished the season as the top scorer in La Liga with 31 goals, winning the European Golden Shoe for the first time. His ability to score for a team that was underperforming is a testament to his sheer talent. However, the lack of a major team trophy will likely hurt his chances, leaving him just outside the top tier of contenders.
Another standout from Barcelona's La Liga triumph was Raphinha, who had a breakout season with "ridiculous numbers" of 34 goals and 25 assists. He also finished as the joint-top scorer in the Champions League with 13 goals, an incredible achievement that will place him high on the final list. Other notable players include Harry Kane, who finally broke his trophy drought with a Bundesliga title at Bayern Munich, and Serhou Guirassy, who had an outstanding Champions League campaign with Borussia Dortmund.
The 2025 Ballon d'Or Prediction
While the debate is rich with compelling arguments for multiple players, the Ballon d'Or has historically favored a player who combined individual excellence with a Champions League trophy. Ousmane Dembélé’s season checks all the boxes. He was the central figure in a historic team triumph, was named the best player in that competition, and his individual numbers are elite. His style of play is electrifying, and his contribution went far beyond just scoring goals. While Mohamed Salah and Lamine Yamal both have incredibly strong cases based on their domestic league success, the prestige of the Champions League, especially a maiden victory for PSG, will likely be the deciding factor.
Predicted Winner: Ousmane Dembélé
Dembélé’s narrative—the redemption of a talent long considered unfulfilled—will resonate deeply with the voters, making him the most deserving candidate for football’s most prestigious individual award.
