The UEFA Champions League season opener between Athletic Club and Arsenal is more than just a clash between two teams—it’s a collision of contrasting trajectories, philosophies, and expectations. On one side stands Arsenal, a club reborn under Mikel Arteta, brimming with tactical clarity, squad depth, and continental ambition. On the other, Athletic Club, a proud institution steeped in Basque tradition, whose presence in this elite competition is both a testament to their resilience and a reminder of the structural limitations they face. The fixture pits one of the tournament’s most heavily backed contenders against a side whose odds of lifting the trophy, according to the Opta supercomputer, stand at a mere 0.5%—a statistical whisper in a sea of giants. Yet football, especially in Europe, has a way of defying probabilities, and while Athletic Club may be labeled a rank outsider, their journey to this stage has been anything but ordinary.
To understand the disparity in expectations, one must look beyond the surface of last season’s achievements. Athletic Club finished fourth in La Liga and reached the semi-finals of the UEFA Europa League, a campaign that showcased their defensive organization, counter-attacking threat, and the tactical acumen of Ernesto Valverde. However, the Opta Power Rankings paint a more sobering picture. Athletic Club face the joint-eighth hardest set of fixtures in the group stage, based on the average strength of their opponents. Arsenal, by contrast, have the second-easiest draw, a factor that significantly boosts their statistical likelihood of progressing deep into the tournament. It’s no surprise, then, that the Gunners are second favourites to win the 2025–26 Champions League, trailing only Liverpool in the predictive models. But numbers alone cannot capture the full story. They do not account for the emotional weight of European nights at San Mamés, nor the tactical wrinkles that Valverde might deploy to frustrate a depleted Arsenal side.
Arsenal’s recent record in the Champions League group stage is formidable. Over the last two editions, they have amassed 30 points from 14 matches, winning 10 and losing just two. Their only defeats last season came against the eventual finalists—Paris Saint-Germain and Internazionale—suggesting that Arsenal are not just flat-track bullies but capable of competing with Europe’s elite. Much of this success has been built on defensive solidity. Under Arteta, the Gunners have conceded just 18 goals in 24 Champions League matches, an average of 0.75 per game. This places them among the most defensively efficient sides in the competition’s modern history. Only four managerial tenures with 20+ matches boast better defensive records: Fabio Capello’s Milan (0.38), Louis van Gaal’s Ajax (0.63), Frank Rijkaard’s Barcelona (0.68), and Valverde’s own Barcelona stint (0.71). These are elite company, and Arsenal’s inclusion in such a list underscores the tactical discipline Arteta has instilled.
However, maintaining that defensive standard will be a challenge in Bilbao. Injuries have ravaged Arsenal’s squad ahead of the opener. William Saliba, the linchpin of their backline, remains doubtful. Martin Ødegaard, the creative heartbeat of the team, limped off during the weekend’s 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest and is unlikely to feature. Christian Nørgaard is nearing a return, but Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, and Bukayo Saka are all confirmed absentees. This leaves Arteta with a threadbare attack and a midfield lacking its usual dynamism. The absence of Saka, in particular, removes a key outlet for transition play and a reliable source of goals. In such circumstances, Arsenal may lean heavily on Viktor Gyökeres, whose European form last season was exceptional. The Swedish striker was directly involved in seven goals in eight Champions League appearances for Sporting CP, averaging a goal or assist every 87 minutes. Only Saka had a better minutes-per-goal-involvement ratio among Arsenal players in 2024–25, and Gyökeres’s physicality and movement could be crucial in breaking down Athletic Club’s compact defensive shape.
Athletic Club, too, are grappling with injury concerns. Nico Williams, their most explosive attacking threat, is unlikely to feature. Iñigo Lekue is close to a return, but Unai Egiluz and Yeray Álvarez remain long-term absentees. Valverde’s tactical options are limited, and the recent 1-0 home defeat to Alavés—courtesy of an Alex Berenguer own goal—has dampened the mood in Bilbao. Yet Valverde’s pedigree in Europe cannot be ignored. He has lost just nine of his 42 Champions League matches as a manager, winning 23. Among Spanish managers with 10+ games in the competition, only Pep Guardiola has a lower loss rate. Valverde’s experience, particularly his ability to manage high-pressure fixtures, could be a stabilizing force for a squad that lacks depth but not spirit. His previous stint with Athletic Club in the Champions League came in 2014–15, and since his return in 2022, the team has won six of their seven European matches at San Mamés. The lone defeat came against Manchester United—a result that offers both caution and context. Arsenal, on current form, are a more complete side than United, and Valverde will need to conjure something special to avoid a repeat.
The historical backdrop adds another layer of intrigue. This will be the first competitive meeting between Athletic Club and Arsenal, though they did face off in the Emirates Cup Final last month, with the Gunners cruising to a 3-0 win. Gyökeres opened the scoring, followed by goals from Saka and Havertz. While pre-season results are rarely definitive, the manner of Arsenal’s victory—fluid, clinical, and defensively assured—suggests a psychological edge heading into the opener. Athletic Club have faced English opposition in the European Cup/Champions League only twice before, both times resulting in elimination. Manchester United knocked them out in the 1956–57 quarter-finals, and Liverpool did the same in 1983–84. The weight of history leans heavily in Arsenal’s favour, and if they win on Tuesday, they will become the first team in European Cup/Champions League history to win six consecutive matches against Spanish sides. Their recent record includes victories over Real Madrid, Sevilla (twice), and Girona—all by 2-1 scorelines. Adding Athletic Club to that list would not only set a new benchmark but also reinforce Arsenal’s growing reputation as a Spanish-slaying force in Europe.
Tactically, the match promises a fascinating duel. Valverde is likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 system, emphasizing compactness in midfield and quick transitions through the flanks. Without Nico Williams, the burden may fall on Oihan Sancet and Iñaki Williams to stretch Arsenal’s backline. Sancet’s ability to drift between lines and link play could be pivotal, especially if Arsenal’s midfield lacks its usual press-resistance. On the other side, Arteta may opt for a conservative setup, perhaps a 4-3-3 with Gyökeres leading the line and Emile Smith Rowe or Reiss Nelson supporting from wide areas. The midfield trio could include Jorginho, Declan Rice, and Fabio Vieira, offering a blend of control, physicality, and creativity. Arsenal’s full-backs—likely Oleksandr Zinchenko and Ben White—will play a crucial role in maintaining width and recycling possession, especially if Athletic Club sit deep and deny central spaces.
Set pieces could also be decisive. Athletic Club have traditionally been strong in aerial duels, and Arsenal’s vulnerability in defending corners—especially without Saliba—might be exploited. Conversely, Arsenal’s own set-piece routines, often orchestrated by Ødegaard or Rice, have yielded goals in tight matches. The absence of key takers may force Arteta to innovate, perhaps using short corners or overloads at the far post. In transition, Arsenal’s pace—even without Saka—remains a threat. Gyökeres’s ability to hold up play and bring midfield runners into the attack could stretch Athletic Club’s defensive shape, especially if their full-backs push high.
Beyond tactics and injuries, the emotional stakes are high. For Athletic Club, this match is a chance to announce their return to Europe’s top table, to prove that their unique identity—built on Basque-only recruitment and local pride—can still compete with the continent’s financial powerhouses. For Arsenal, it is another step in their quest for continental validation. Arteta has rebuilt the club’s domestic standing, but European success remains elusive. A strong start in Bilbao would not only boost their group stage prospects but also send a message to rivals that Arsenal are no longer just promising—they are ready.
In the end, while the odds, form, and history favour Arsenal, the beauty of the Champions League lies in its unpredictability. San Mamés will be roaring, Valverde will be scheming, and Athletic Club will be dreaming. Whether that dream can withstand the tactical precision and attacking quality of Arteta’s Arsenal remains to be seen. But for 90 minutes, under the floodlights, the gap between favourites and outsiders will blur, and the game will be decided not by simulations or statistics, but by courage, execution, and the timeless drama of European football.
