Benfica vs Real Madrid

The Estádio da Luz—the "Cathedral" and scene of Real Madrid's historic La Décima—is the stage for a monumental clash tonight, Wednesday, January 28, 2026. Benfica welcomes Real Madrid in a match that carries massive weight for both sides at opposite ends of the table.

For Benfica, coached by former Madrid boss José Mourinho, this is a fight for survival. Sitting in 29th place (6 points), they must beat the Spanish giants and hope for a favorable swing in results elsewhere to sneak into the top 24. Real Madrid, currently 3rd place (15 points) under Álvaro Arbeloa, needs just one point to mathematically secure a top-eight finish and a direct ticket to the Round of 16.

Match Information

Benfica: Mourinho’s "Last Stand"

The "Special One" faces his former club with his back against the wall. Benfica’s European campaign has been a nightmare of inconsistency, suffering five losses in seven games. However, a dominant 4–0 domestic win over Estrela on Sunday has provided a glimmer of hope that they can rediscover their scoring touch when it matters most.

Team News and Selection:

• Injury Crisis: Benfica is severely depleted. Dodi Lukebakio (broken ankle), Alexander Bah (knee), Richard Rios (shoulder), and Nuno Félix are all ruled out.

• The "Sudakov" Spark: Midfielder Heorhiy Sudakov will be the creative engine tasked with feeding star striker Vangelis Pavlidis, who has 27 goals across all competitions this season.

• Defensive Anchor: Veteran Nicolás Otamendi will lead a backline that has conceded 10 goals in Europe so far.

• Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Trubin; Dedić, T. Araújo, Otamendi, Dahl; Aursnes, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Barreiro, Sudakov; Pavlidis.

Real Madrid: Chasing History and Rest

Real Madrid enters Lisbon in blistering form, fresh from a 6–1 demolition of Monaco and a 2–0 victory over Villarreal. Beyond qualification, there is a personal record on the line: Kylian Mbappé has 11 goals in this league phase, just one away from breaking the single-phase record.

Team News and Selection:

• Defensive Patchwork: Arbeloa is still without Éder Militão, David Alaba, Ferland Mendy, and Trent Alexander-Arnold. 18-year-old Raul Asencio is expected to continue his impressive run in central defense.

• Returns: Aurélien Tchouaméni and Álvaro Carreras (returning to his former club) are both back from suspension and will likely start.

• The "Mastantuono" Hype: Teenage sensation Franco Mastantuono is favored to start over Rodrygo, who is being eased back from a minor knock.

• Predicted XI (4-3-3): Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras; Güler, Tchouaméni, Bellingham; Mastantuono, Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior.

 Head-to-Head (H2H) and Key Stats

• The 1962 Ghost: These teams famously met in the 1962 European Cup Final, where Eusébio’s Benfica beat Real Madrid 5–3.

• Modern Rarity: This is their first competitive meeting in the 21st century.

• Mbappé’s Mission: If Mbappé scores tonight, he will set a new record for most goals in a single Champions League league/group phase (currently 11).

• Portuguese Dominance: Real Madrid has not lost to a Portuguese side in their last 10 encounters.

Tactical Analysis and Prediction

Mourinho is expected to set up a "trap"—a deep, compact block designed to frustrate Vinícius Júnior and Mbappé, looking to strike on the counter through Pavlidis. However, Real Madrid’s midfield versatility, especially with Jude Bellingham and Arda Güler finding pockets of space, makes them incredibly difficult to shut down for 90 minutes.

Madrid's makeshift defense is the only real area of concern, having conceded in four straight Champions League games. If Benfica can score early, the Luz will become a bear pit. Ultimately, the gulf in individual quality should prevail.

Final Score Prediction: Benfica 1–3 Real Madrid