The Bundesliga's second half continues today, Saturday, January 17, 2026, as Borussia Dortmund welcomes FC St. Pauli to the Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off is scheduled for 15:30 CET (14:30 GMT).
This Matchday 18 fixture serves as a critical test for Niko Kovač’s high-flying Dortmund side, who are looking to maintain their unbeaten streak, and Alexander Blessin’s St. Pauli, who are fighting for top-flight survival.
1. Match Overview: Contrasting Ambitions
| Category | Borussia Dortmund | FC St. Pauli |
| League Position | 2nd (36 Points) | 17th (12 Points) |
| Current Form | W-W-D-W-D | L-L-D-W-D |
| Goals Scored | 32 | 14 |
| Goals Conceded | 15 | 28 |
Borussia Dortmund enters this fixture on the back of a convincing 3–0 victory over Werder Bremen. Currently four points clear of third-placed RB Leipzig, BVB is enjoying its most stable defensive season in recent memory, boasting a league-high 9 clean sheets.
Conversely, FC St. Pauli is struggling to find consistency. Following a 2–1 defeat to Wolfsburg in midweek, the "Kiezkicker" find themselves in the automatic relegation zone. While they managed a 3–3 draw against Dortmund earlier this season at the Millerntor, repeating that feat in front of the 81,000-strong "Yellow Wall" represents a significantly greater challenge.
2. Team News and Selection Updates
Borussia Dortmund
Niko Kovač has rotated his squad effectively during this busy January period. The primary storyline for BVB is the likely first start of 2026 for Jobe Bellingham, who is expected to replace the injured Marcel Sabitzer.
Confirmed Out: Aaron Anselmino (hamstring), Marcel Sabitzer (calf), and Ramy Bensebaini (illness/post-AFCON recovery).
Tactical Shift: Kovač has experimented with a 3-4-1-2 formation recently, utilizing Emre Can as a ball-playing defender alongside Waldemar Anton and Nico Schlotterbeck.
Predicted XI (3-4-1-2): Kobel; Can, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Couto, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson; Chukwuemeka; Beier, Silva.
FC St. Pauli
Alexander Blessin is dealing with a significant injury list that has hampered his ability to name a consistent starting eleven.
Confirmed Out: Captain Jackson Irvine (foot injury) is a massive loss for the visitors. Other absentees include David Nemeth (muscular), Andreas Hountondji (ankle), and Danel Sinani (calf).
Key Player: Striker Martijn Kaars will be the focal point of the attack. St. Pauli will rely on his ability to hold up play and exploit transitions.
Predicted XI (3-5-2): Vasilj; Dźwigała, Wahl, Mets; Pyrka, Fujita, Smith, Sands, Oppie; Kaars, Pereira Lage.
3. Head-to-Head (H2H) and Statistical Trends
Historical Advantage: Dortmund has won 17 of the 25 total meetings between the two sides. St. Pauli has never won a league match at the Signal Iduna Park.
The "Two-Goal" Rule: Dortmund has scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches against St. Pauli.
Defensive Resilience: BVB is currently on a 10-match unbeaten streak in the Bundesliga, their longest run since the 2018/19 season.
St. Pauli Away Form: The visitors have managed only one win in their last nine away fixtures, scoring just six goals on their travels this season.
4. Tactical Analysis: Power vs. Resilience
Dortmund’s success under Kovač has been defined by defensive discipline. Unlike the high-chaos teams of previous years, this Dortmund side is comfortable sitting in a medium block and utilizing the pace of Maximilian Beier and Fábio Silva on the break.
St. Pauli traditionally employs a 3-5-2 system designed to crowd the midfield and force opponents wide. Without Irvine, the burden falls on James Sands and Eric Smith to disrupt Dortmund's rhythm. If St. Pauli can survive the initial 20-minute surge from the home crowd, their chance lies in set-pieces and the offside trap, which they have utilized more frequently than any other team in the bottom half.
5. Match Prediction
While St. Pauli’s spirit is rarely in question, the combination of Dortmund's home dominance and the visitors' missing personnel makes an upset unlikely. Expect Dortmund to control possession and eventually break through a tiring St. Pauli defense in the second half.
Final Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2–0 FC St. Pauli
