The legendary San Siro (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza) in Milan is the electrifying venue for the final and decisive match of 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualification Group I, featuring Italy and Norway.1 This fixture is a high-stakes, dramatic conclusion to the group stage, with automatic qualification hanging in the balance, though the scenario for the hosts requires nothing short of a miracle.2
Norway, under the guidance of Ståle Solbakken, has been the sensational story of this qualifying campaign.3 They arrive in Milan with a perfect 7-0-0 record, an astonishing 33 goals scored (a European best), and a massive goal difference of +29.4 De beste (The Best) simply need to avoid defeat against Italy to secure their first World Cup appearance since 1998.5 Even a loss will likely not be enough for Italy to overtake them, making Norway the clear favorites for the top spot.
Italy, led by coach Gennaro Gattuso, has been forced into this must-win situation after a shocking 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture in Oslo earlier in the campaign.6 Despite winning all five matches since that loss, the reigning European Champions sit in second place, three points behind Norway with an inferior goal difference of +12.7 For the Azzurri to secure direct passage to the World Cup, they must win this match by an improbable margin of at least nine goals.8 Realistically, Italy is already resigned to the dreaded World Cup play-offs, but they must still secure a professional victory to ensure they are seeded (Pot 1) for the play-off draw.
The Tactical Imperative: Haaland's Clinical Edge vs. Italian Control
Norway: Erling Haaland and Ruthless Efficiency
Norway's success is inseparable from the incredible form of Erling Haaland.9 The Manchester City striker has netted 14 goals in the campaign, driving Norway’s record-breaking goal haul.10 Norway's strategy will be built on their ruthless efficiency: defend compactly, quickly transition the ball to their star forwards, and allow the technical brilliance of captain Martin Ødegaard to create opportunities.
Given their massive goal difference lead, their primary tactical goal will be defensive: frustrate Italy, absorb pressure, and deny early goals. If they can keep the score tight for the first 45 minutes, the immense pressure on Italy will only compound, playing directly into Norway’s hands.
Italy: The Impossible Goal-Swing
For Italy, the need to win by a nine-goal margin means they must adopt an almost reckless, all-out attacking approach from the first whistle—a mindset that goes against the natural defensive DNA of Catenaccio. Gattuso has instilled passion and grit since taking over, but his team will need extreme creativity.
The attack will rely heavily on forwards like Mateo Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori to be clinical, while the midfield, anchored by Nicolò Barella, must be perfect in distribution and ball recovery.12 Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma remains a vital presence, though he will face the unusual task of supporting a team whose focus is almost entirely on the offensive end. Italy's key will be to utilize the intimidating San Siro atmosphere to score early and maintain belief in the near-impossible task.
Head-to-Head History (H2H): Recent Norwegian Edge
The historical rivalry has been tight, but the most recent result strongly favours the visitors:
| Competition | Total Matches | Italy Wins | Norway Wins | Draws |
| Last 5 Meetings | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
The results show a closely contested history, including two Italian wins in the EURO 2016 qualifiers. However, the most recent clash—the 3-0 victory for Norway in June—was a decisive demonstration of the shift in power and is the primary reason Italy is in this desperate scenario.13
World Cup Qualification Scenarios
Norway (Q): A draw or a victory seals automatic qualification. They can even afford to lose by up to eight goals.
Italy (P): Italy must win by a margin of nine or more goals to leapfrog Norway and secure automatic qualification.14 Any other result ensures they finish second and head to the play-offs
Prediction: While Italy will dominate possession and be relentless in attack, the sheer quality and motivation of Norway, coupled with the brilliance of Haaland, make the goal-difference gap insurmountable. Norway is expected to defend resolutely, grab a goal on the counter, and end the Azzurri's automatic qualification hopes in a dramatic San Siro evening. Italy will win, but not by nearly enough.
