The knockout stage of the TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) Morocco 2025 reaches a boiling point tonight, Saturday, January 3, 2026, as two continental heavyweights, Mali and Tunisia, clash at the Stade Mohammed V in Casablanca.
Both teams arrive in the Round of 16 after grueling group-stage campaigns. While Mali progressed without a single win (three draws), Tunisia’s rollercoaster ride in Group C saw them clinch second place behind Nigeria. This fixture is historically significant, marking the first time these two "Eagles" will face each other in a knockout match at an AFCON tournament.
Match Details: Kick-off & Where to Watch
Competition: AFCON 2025 (Round of 16)
Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
Kick-off: 19:00 GMT / 20:00 Local / 22:00 EAT
Venue: Stade Mohammed V, Casablanca, Morocco
Referee: TBD (VAR: In use)
Broadcast: beIN Sports, Canal+, FanCode (India), SABC Sports
Form Guide: The "Draw Specialists" vs. The Defensive Struggle
Mali: Solid But Goal-Shy
Under the tactical guidance of Tom Saintfiet, Mali has become one of the hardest teams to beat in Africa. However, their group stage was a story of missed opportunities. The "Eagles" finished second in Group A with 3 points after three consecutive draws: 1–1 vs. Zambia, 1–1 vs. Morocco, and a frustrating 0–0 vs. Comoros.
While Saintfiet has praised his team’s defensive discipline—conceding only two goals in the group stage—Mali has struggled to kill games off. They will need to find a more clinical edge tonight, as the luxury of playing for a draw no longer exists in the knockout rounds.
Tunisia: A Rollercoaster Campaign
The Carthage Eagles have been far less predictable. They began with a dominant 3–1 win over Uganda, only to be brought back to earth in a 3–2 thriller against Nigeria. They secured their knockout berth with a gritty 1–1 draw against Tanzania on December 30.
Tunisia’s strength lies in their transition play and the form of full-back Ali Abdi, who has been one of the tournament's standout players. However, their defense has looked porous at times, a weakness Mali’s Lassine Sinayoko will be eager to exploit.
Team News & Predicted Lineups
Mali Team News
The biggest blow for Mali is the absence of midfield engine Amadou Haidara, who is suspended after receiving a late red card in the final group match against Comoros.
Boost: Sikou Niakate has returned to full training and is expected to start in central defense.
Key Player: Lassine Sinayoko. He has been the primary source of threat and will be tasked with leading the line in Casablanca.
Predicted XI (4-3-3): Diarra; Traoré, Niakate, Fofana, Doucouré; Camara, Bissouma, Coulibaly; Dorgeles, Sinayoko, Koita.
Tunisia Team News
Tunisia is sweating on the fitness of star winger Elias Achouri, who picked up a knock in the final group game.
Suspension Watch: Tunisia enters the game with no major suspensions but several players on yellow cards.
Key Player: Ali Abdi. The defender has netted in three successive months (Oct, Nov, Dec 2025) and provides a lethal crossing threat.
Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Dahmen; Kechrida, Talbi, Meriah, Abdi; Skhiri, Laidouni; Rafia, Ben Romdhane, Msakni; Jouini.
Head-to-Head (H2H) History
Overall Record: Tunisia 7 wins, Mali 5 wins, 3 Draws.
AFCON Record: In four previous AFCON meetings, Mali is unbeaten (W2, D2).
Recent Meeting: The sides played out a 1–1 draw during the group stages of AFCON 2023.
Stat to Watch: None of the last six meetings between these two sides have featured more than 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.
Tactical Analysis: The Chess Match in Casablanca
Tom Saintfiet is known for his defensive organization, often setting Mali up in a compact mid-block that frustrates creative teams. Without Haidara, Yves Bissouma will have to play a more disciplined role to prevent Tunisia’s Ellyes Skhiri from controlling the tempo.
Tunisia, meanwhile, will look to use the pace of Youssef Msakni and the overlapping runs of Abdi to stretch the Malian backline. If Mali can withstand the early pressure, they have the physical superiority to dominate set-pieces, which could be the deciding factor in a game likely to be decided by fine margins.
Match Prediction
This is perhaps the most evenly-matched fixture of the Round of 16. Mali is exceptionally difficult to break down, while Tunisia has the "tournament experience" that often proves vital in knockouts. Given Mali's recent trend of drawing and Tunisia’s defensive lapses, we could be headed for the first penalty shootout of the tournament.
Final Score Prediction: Mali 1–1 Tunisia (Mali to progress on penalties)
