The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco continues its high-octane opening week as Mali faces Zambia at the iconic Stade Mohammed V in Casablanca on Monday, December 22, 2025. This Group A encounter follows Morocco's 2-0 victory over Comoros, placing immense pressure on both the "Eagles" of Mali and the "Chipolopolo" of Zambia to secure a positive result and keep pace with the host nation.
Historically, this fixture has provided some of the most dramatic moments in African football. While Mali enters as the statistical favorite, Zambia remains a proud footballing nation with a "giant-killer" reputation that dates back to their legendary 2012 title run.
Current Form: Mali’s Consistency vs. Zambia’s Struggles
Mali: The Dark Horses of Group A
Mali arrives in Casablanca with one of the most consistent records in African football. They have never lost an opening match in their previous 13 AFCON appearances (W8, D5). Under the guidance of Tom Saintfiet, the Eagles have developed a reputation for defensive organization and physical dominance.
Heading into this tournament, Mali is on a 10-match unbeaten streak in competitive fixtures. Their qualifying campaign was flawless, characterized by a midfield that is arguably the most balanced in the tournament. However, their challenge has always been the knockout stages; despite their talent, they haven't progressed past the quarter-finals in their last five editions.
Zambia: Searching for the Spirit of 2012
In contrast, Nottingham Forest’s former assistant Moses Sichone (leading the side due to his familiarity with the squad) faces a daunting task. Zambia has struggled in the build-up to AFCON 2025, suffering four consecutive defeats in their most recent outings.
The Copper Bullets have failed to win a single group-stage game at an AFCON finals since their 2012 triumph (D7, L2). Despite these numbers, the presence of elite attacking talent like Patson Daka and Fashion Sakala ensures they remain a threat on the counter-attack. For Zambia, this match is about pride and ending a decade-long drought of tournament relevance.
Tactical Breakdown: The Midfield Battleground
Mali’s Midfield Engine Room
Tom Saintfiet typically utilizes a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 formation that leans heavily on the double pivot of Amadou Haidara and Aliou Dieng. The big news for Mali is the return of Yves Bissouma. Despite missing significant time for Tottenham Hotspur this season due to an ankle injury, his inclusion provides Mali with a world-class ball-progressor who can break lines with a single pass.
Mali’s strategy will likely involve high pressing to force turnovers in the middle third, using the pace of Nene Dorgeles and the physicality of El Bilal Touré to overwhelm Zambia’s defense.
Zambia’s Transition Game
Zambia often sets up in a 4-1-4-1 or a 4-4-2 to maximize their speed on the flanks. With Kings Kangwa acting as the creative spark in the hole, Zambia looks to release Lameck Banda and Fashion Sakala into space.
The biggest tactical concern for Zambia is their defensive transition. They have shown a tendency to leave gaps between their midfield and defensive lines, which a player of Bissouma's caliber will exploit. To succeed, Zambia must remain compact and rely on the veteran leadership of Stopilla Sunzu to organize the backline against Mali’s aerial threat.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Mali Team News
The headlines are dominated by Yves Bissouma. While he has traveled with the squad, there are questions regarding his match fitness for a full 90 minutes. Beyond Bissouma, Mali has a clean bill of health, with Hamari Traoré expected to lead the side from the right-back position.
Predicted XI (4-3-3): Diarra; Traoré, Niakaté, Fofana, Dante; Haidara, Dieng, Bissouma; Dorgeles, El Bilal Touré, Sinayoko.
Zambia Team News
Zambia faces a unique coaching situation, as Moses Sichone reportedly lacks the specific CAF Pro License to sit on the bench as "Head Coach," though he remains the primary tactical mind. On the pitch, captain Patson Daka is fully fit and will lead the line. The goalkeeping position is a point of contention, with Lawrence Mulenga expected to start ahead of the uncapped Francis Mwansa.
Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Mulenga; Benedict Chepeshi, Sunzu, Frankie Musonda, Kabaso Chongo; Benson Sakala, Miguel Chaiwa; Lameck Banda, Kings Kangwa, Fashion Sakala; Patson Daka.
Head-to-Head: A Historical Edge for Zambia?
While Mali is the current favorite, historical data shows that Zambia has often had the upper hand in competitive fixtures.
| Competition | Result | Date |
| International Friendly | Mali 1-0 Zambia | Sept 2022 |
| AFCON Semi-Final | Zambia 4-0 Mali | April 1994 |
| CHAN | Mali 0-0 Zambia | Jan 2016 |
| World Cup Qualifier | Zambia 2-1 Mali | Sept 2005 |
Zambia’s 4-0 thrashing of Mali in the 1994 semi-finals remains Mali's joint-heaviest defeat in AFCON history. However, the most recent meeting in 2022 went the way of the Eagles, suggesting the power dynamic has shifted toward West Africa in recent years.
Key Matchups to Watch
Patson Daka vs. Sikou Niakaté: Daka’s speed and intelligent movement in the box will be the primary concern for Niakaté. If Niakaté can win the physical battle, Zambia’s scoring chances drop significantly.
Yves Bissouma vs. Kings Kangwa: This is the game’s most critical duel. Kangwa is the orchestrator for Zambia, but he will have to contend with one of the best ball-winners in the Premier League.
Lameck Banda vs. Hamari Traoré: The veteran Traoré will use all his experience to neutralize the explosive Banda, who is often the source of Zambia's most dangerous crosses.
Match Prediction: Defensive Solidity vs. Individual Brilliance
Mali’s record of never losing an opening game at AFCON is a testament to their psychological and tactical preparation. While Zambia possesses the individual quality to score, their recent defensive form suggests they will struggle to contain Mali’s multifaceted attack for 90 minutes.
Expect a cagey first half, with Mali eventually asserting dominance through their superior midfield control.
Final Score Prediction: Mali 2-1 Zambia
