Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

The Santiago Bernabéu hosts a high-stakes Madrid derby today, Sunday, February 1, 2026. Real Madrid welcomes Rayo Vallecano for a Matchday 22 encounter that carries heavy weight at both ends of the La Liga table. Kick-off is scheduled for 13:00 local time (12:00 GMT).

For Real Madrid (2nd, 51 points), today is about maintaining the pressure on leaders Barcelona. Following a bruising 4–2 Champions League loss to Benfica midweek, Álvaro Arbeloa—who recently took over from Xabi Alonso—needs a statement win to keep the "crisis" talk at bay. For Rayo Vallecano (16th, 22 points), they arrive just one point above the relegation zone, hoping to repeat the defensive masterclass that saw them hold Los Blancos to a 0–0 draw earlier this season.

Match Information

Real Madrid: The Arbeloa Era & Mbappé’s Form

Despite the shock resignation of Xabi Alonso and the European setback in Lisbon, Madrid’s domestic form under Arbeloa has been perfect: five consecutive La Liga wins. The team’s fortunes currently rest on the broad shoulders of Kylian Mbappé, who is in world-class form with 21 league goals already this season.

Team News and Selection:

• Injury Crisis at the Back: The defense is decimated. Éder Militão, David Alaba, and Ferland Mendy are all sidelined. Trent Alexander-Arnold is back in training but unlikely to start today due to a lack of match fitness.

• Midfield Stability: Aurélien Tchouaméni returns to the starting lineup after a suspension, likely partnering Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga.

• Predicted XI (4-3-3): Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouaméni, Bellingham; Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinícius Jr.

Rayo Vallecano: The Battle for Survival

Iñigo Pérez’s side is in a slump, having won only one of their last 11 league matches. They arrive following a disappointing 3–1 home loss to Osasuna. However, the "Bees" are notoriously difficult to break down in local derbies, often employing a deep low block that has frustrated Madrid in the past.

Team News and Selection:

• Key Absences: Abdul Mumin (knee) and Andrei Ratiu (leg) are out, while Ivan Balliu is a significant doubt.

• Top Scorer: Álvaro García (10 goals) remains the primary outlet for Rayo’s counter-attacks.

• Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Batalla; Balliu (?), Lejeune, Ciss, Chavarría; Palazón, Valentín, Díaz; Akhomach, De Frutos, Á. García.

? Head-to-Head (H2H) and Key Stats

• The "Wall" of Rayo: Rayo Vallecano held Real Madrid to a 0–0 draw in their last meeting (November 2025).

• Bernabéu Fortress: Real Madrid has won 13 of their last 14 home games against Rayo Vallecano.

• Mbappé's Streak: The Frenchman has scored in each of his last four official matches, including three braces.

• Clean Sheet Focus: Real Madrid has kept a clean sheet in their last two La Liga matches but conceded four goals in Europe on Wednesday.

Tactical Analysis and Prediction

Arbeloa’s Real Madrid plays a much more vertical game than the possession-heavy style of his predecessor. Expect Federico Valverde to push high from right-back to compensate for the missing Trent Alexander-Arnold, while Vinícius Jr. and Rodrygo will look to isolate Rayo’s full-backs.

Rayo will likely sit with ten men behind the ball, hoping to survive the early onslaught. If they can keep it 0–0 past the hour mark, the Bernabéu crowd—already restless from the Benfica defeat—could become a factor. However, with Mbappé in this kind of form, the "Redemption Arc" for the hosts seems inevitable.

Final Score Prediction: Real Madrid 3–0 Rayo Vallecano