The knockout stage of the TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) Morocco 2025 officially ignites tonight, Saturday, January 3, 2026, with a high-stakes "David vs. Goliath" encounter. The Teranga Lions of Senegal, one of the tournament’s heavy favorites, take on the resilient Sudan at the Grand Stade de Tanger.
As the competition transitions into the "do-or-die" phase, the pressure is on Senegal to prove why they are the continent's top-ranked side, while Sudan seeks to pull off what would be the biggest upset in AFCON history.
Match Overview: Senegal vs. Sudan
Competition: AFCON 2025 (Round of 16)
Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
Kick-off: 16:00 GMT | 19:00 EAT (Kenya)
Venue: Grand Stade de Tanger (Ibn Batouta Stadium), Morocco
Referee: TBD
Broadcast: beIN Sports, Canal+, AfroSport TV, SABC Sports
The Road to the Round of 16
Senegal: The Untouchable Giants
Senegal’s journey through Group D was nothing short of authoritative. Under the guidance of coach Pape Thiaw, the 2021 champions finished top of their group with seven points, edging out DR Congo on goal difference. Their campaign opened with a clinical 3–0 demolition of Botswana, followed by a tactical 1–1 draw with DR Congo. They sealed their top spot with another emphatic 3–0 victory over Benin on December 30.
The Teranga Lions have been a defensive fortress, conceding just once in the tournament so far. However, their final group match left a bittersweet taste: while they secured the win, they lost their captain and defensive heartbeat, Kalidou Koulibaly, to a straight red card.
Sudan: The Underdog’s Persistence
Sudan’s presence in the knockout rounds is one of the most heartwarming stories of AFCON 2025. Despite the ongoing civil unrest in their home country, the Secretaries of the Nile finished third in Group E and progressed as one of the four best third-placed teams.
Their progression was secured by a gritty 1–0 victory over Equatorial Guinea, though it is worth noting that their only goal of the tournament thus far was an own goal. Sudan struggled in their other group fixtures, conceding six goals across three matches, but their defensive "low-block" philosophy under coach Kwesi Appiah has made them a frustrating opponent to break down.
Team News & Injury Updates
Senegal: Managing the Captain's Absence
The biggest talking point for Senegal is the suspension of Kalidou Koulibaly. His absence leaves a massive void in the center of defense. Pape Thiaw is expected to turn to Mamadou Sarr or Abdou Diallo to partner with Moussa Niakhaté.
In attack, there are minor concerns over Iliman Ndiaye, who picked up a knock against Benin. However, with the likes of Nicolas Jackson (who scored a brace in the opener) and the legendary Sadio Mané in peak form, Senegal possesses more than enough firepower to compensate for any rotation.
Predicted XI (4-3-3): Mendy; Diatta, Niakhaté, M. Sarr, Jakobs; I. Gueye, P. Matar Sarr, Lamine Camara; I. Sarr, Jackson, Mané.
Sudan: The Resilience of Kwesi Appiah
Sudan enters this match with several injury doubts. Midfielder Abuaagla Mohamed and forward Abobaker Eisa are facing late fitness tests. Coach Kwesi Appiah, the former Ghana boss, is expected to prioritize a "safety-first" 5-4-1 formation, hoping to catch Senegal on the counter-attack through Mohamed Abdelrahman.
Predicted XI (5-4-1): Mustafa; Agab, Khedr, Mustafa Karshoum, Bakhit, Khamis; Abuaagla, Al-Rasheed, Tiri, Eisa; Abdelrahman.
Head-to-Head: History Favors the Lions
Historically, this has been a one-sided rivalry. Senegal and Sudan have met seven times previously, with Senegal remaining undefeated (4 wins, 3 draws).
Interestingly, these two sides have become very familiar with each other in the last year. They were drawn together in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers, playing twice in 2025. Senegal won the most recent encounter 2–0 in September 2025, thanks to goals from Koulibaly and Pape Matar Sarr. Sudan’s last goal against Senegal came in a penalty shootout during the 2024 CHAN tournament—they have not scored against the Teranga Lions in open play in over a decade.
Tactical Analysis: Patience vs. Containment
The match in Tangier will likely follow a predictable pattern: Senegal dominating possession while Sudan sits deep in their own half.
The battle in the midfield will be crucial. Senegal’s Lamine Camara and Pape Matar Sarr are among the best ball-progressors in Africa right now. Their job will be to feed Sadio Mané, who often drops deep to create space. Sudan’s hope lies in the "chaos factor"—using their physicality to win second balls and frustrating the Senegalese attackers into making mistakes.
If Sudan can keep the score 0–0 until the 60th minute, the pressure on Senegal will mount, potentially leading to the type of nervous performance that saw them exit at this same stage against Ivory Coast in the 2023 edition.
Match Prediction
While Sudan’s spirit is admirable, the gulf in individual quality is simply too wide. Senegal has the deepest squad in the competition, and even without Koulibaly, their defensive organization is elite. Sudan has struggled to register shots on target throughout the group stage, and breaking through a backline protected by Edouard Mendy will be a monumental task.
Expect Senegal to be professional and clinical, likely scoring early to force Sudan out of their defensive shell.
Final Score Prediction: Senegal 3–0 Sudan
