AS Monaco vs Olympique de Marseille

This weekend in Ligue 1, one of the most anticipated matchups will see AS Monaco host Olympique de Marseille at the Stade Louis II. The stakes are high for both teams, as they continue their fierce competition for automatic qualification to the prestigious UEFA Champions League. Monaco, who once held second place, was recently overtaken by Marseille following a disappointing weekend, leaving Adi Hütter's men in third position. However, they remain very much in the race, as the top four spots are tightly contested with little room for error.

As the Ligue 1 season nears its conclusion, every match becomes crucial in determining the final standings. Monaco’s season has been marked by inconsistency in their performances against top-half opposition, and their recent results have added to the pressure. The team has accumulated 50 points, but only a small fraction of those have come against clubs in the top half of the table, with just 14 points from 16 matches against these teams. This poor record against higher-ranked sides has hampered their chances of securing one of the coveted top two spots, which would guarantee direct entry into the Champions League. Last weekend's 2-1 defeat to Brest was a particularly damaging blow, as it saw Monaco slip from second to third place, further intensifying the sense of urgency surrounding their campaign.

While Monaco has dropped points, their rivals are hot on their heels, with Strasbourg only one point behind and Lyon, in fifth, not far off either. The remaining six matches of the Ligue 1 season will prove to be absolutely pivotal in the quest for a Champions League spot. With the margin for error rapidly diminishing, every point will be crucial for these teams, and Monaco knows that they must rebound quickly in order to maintain their position among the top contenders.

Despite their struggles against higher-ranked teams, Monaco can take solace in their exceptional form at home. The Stade Louis II has been a fortress for Hütter’s side in 2025, as they remain the only team in Ligue 1 with a perfect home record this year. Winning all five of their matches at home, Monaco has been prolific in attack, scoring 19 goals in those games. Their home form has been a rare bright spot in what has otherwise been an inconsistent campaign, and they will need to continue that strong run if they are to stay in the hunt for second place. In fact, it has been six years since Monaco last won six consecutive home games, making the achievement of doing so this season particularly significant. A victory in this match would not only help them restore some momentum but also lift them back into second place, ahead of Marseille, should results elsewhere go their way.

However, Marseille’s challenge will not be an easy one. Roberto De Zerbi’s side has had success at the Stade Louis II in the past, with no other team in Ligue 1 having won more away games at Monaco than Marseille, who have recorded 20 victories in 53 trips to the principality. The most recent of those wins came in their last meeting, with four of the last six encounters in Monaco having ended with Marseille celebrating a victory. This historical advantage will provide a psychological boost for De Zerbi’s side as they prepare for this critical clash.

For Marseille, the road to securing a Champions League spot is also fraught with challenges. Having reclaimed second place, the team is aware that the race for the top four is highly competitive, and any further slip-ups could be costly. Their most recent match, a 3-2 victory over Toulouse at the Stade Vélodrome, was a much-needed win following a difficult period. Marseille had been on a three-game losing streak, which had left them under intense scrutiny. The win against Toulouse helped them bounce back from the frustration and negativity surrounding the team, which had been amplified by manager Roberto De Zerbi’s decision to refuse to take training after their heavy loss to Reims.

Despite their success in getting back on track with the win against Toulouse, Marseille’s defense remains a cause for concern. They have conceded 38 goals this season, the most by a second-place team at this point in the season since Bordeaux in 1983. While this defensive vulnerability is somewhat in line with De Zerbi’s high-pressing, attacking style of play, it has nevertheless been a weak point for the team. Their offensive firepower has been a major asset, with Marseille averaging over two goals per game in Ligue 1, and their attacking play has often been dazzling. However, their porous defense means that their attack must consistently produce in order to compensate for the goals they concede.

Marseille’s recent form away from home has also been a cause for concern. After a strong start to the season on the road, taking 27 points from a possible 33 in their first 11 away games, the team has now lost three consecutive matches on their travels. This sharp decline in form has raised questions about their ability to perform away from home in high-stakes matches, and it is a trend that De Zerbi will be desperate to arrest. As they face Monaco, a team that is in the midst of a crucial period in their own season, Marseille will need to prove that they can perform under pressure and show that their recent struggles on the road are a temporary blip.

Both teams come into this match with their own distinct challenges. Monaco’s issues against top-half teams, coupled with their inability to capitalize on their home form against lower-ranked sides, have left them vulnerable. However, they can take confidence from their perfect record at the Stade Louis II in 2025, and a win here would go a long way in maintaining their push for a top-two finish. For Marseille, the focus will be on continuing their strong attacking play while shoring up their defense to avoid conceding goals against a Monaco side that has been potent at home. Given their history of success at Monaco, Marseille will likely feel confident heading into this match, but they will need to shake off their recent away form to stand a chance.

With the season nearing its conclusion and both teams fighting for a spot in next year’s Champions League, this match represents a pivotal moment in the race for the top four. Each side will need to bring their best performance, as a loss could have dire consequences for their Champions League aspirations. For Monaco, the challenge is to rediscover the form that has made them so strong at home, while Marseille will look to extend their dominance at the Stade Louis II and put pressure on Monaco’s top-four hopes. It is shaping up to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams knowing that every point could make a difference in the final reckoning.