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Both into the last 16 following an eventful climax to their group-stage campaign, Euro 2024 dark horses Austria and Turkey convene in Leipzig on Tuesday evening. This eagerly anticipated match features a substantial prize: the winner will qualify for a quarter-final against either the Netherlands or Romania.
Match Preview
Having arrived in neighboring Germany as one of Europe's form sides, Austria qualified for the knockout phase of Euro 2024 as Group D winners by beating the Netherlands 3-2 in a thrilling contest at Berlin's Olympiastadion last Tuesday. Ralf Rangnick's men were handed a tough draw alongside the Oranje and favorites France, but they accrued six points from a possible nine to finish top of the pile, ahead of Les Bleus, who were surprisingly held to a 1-1 draw by already-eliminated Poland.
After they twice lost the lead, Austria captain Marcel Sabitzer struck an 80th-minute winner to snatch first place, following an opening defeat to France and a 3-1 win over Poland. The Austrians failed to pass the group stage at their first two Euros - as hosts in 2008, and then again eight years later - so getting this far already represents an impressive achievement.
Indeed, Das Team have qualified for the knockout rounds of a major tournament for only the fourth time ever, also doing so at the 1934 and 1954 World Cups and Euro 2020. Rangnick's high-energy side is now trying to reach Austria's first European Championship quarter-final, and recent results suggest they could be ready to break new ground: they have now won 14 of their last 19 matches, losing just two.
Since Rangnick took charge in June 2022, only three European nations - Portugal, Netherlands, and Spain - can boast a higher win percentage, with one notable victory taking place in a friendly fixture just over three months ago. Austria smashed Turkey 6-1 in Vienna during the spring international period, when Michael Gregoritsch helped himself to a hat-trick before the hour mark at Ernst Happel Stadion.
In competitive meetings, though, Turkey are unbeaten in their last five games against Tuesday's opponents, keeping a clean sheet on each occasion; albeit this will be the first such encounter since a 0-0 draw in Euro 2012 qualifying.
The Crescent-Stars set up this latest clash by claiming a dramatic 2-1 win over the Czech Republic in their final Group F game on Wednesday evening when veteran striker Cenk Tosun struck in second-half stoppage time to seal a place in the last 16. Though Vincenzo Montella's men knew that a point would be enough - and they played most of the match with a one-man advantage - conceding not long after Hakan Calhanoglu's 51st-minute finish put them in front had left their progress in some jeopardy.
Tosun's late strike not only sparked a chaotic conclusion that saw several cards brandished but also meant Turkey finished second in the standings, having begun their Group F campaign with an eventful 3-1 win over debutants Georgia and then lost 3-0 to Portugal.
Montella's youthful squad, who had the second-youngest starting XI on average during the group stage, have therefore taken their nation into the latter stages of the Euros for just a third time ever - and the first since 2008, when Turkey memorably made the semi-finals. Now, their Euro 2024 adventure continues, and despite Austria's proximity to the host nation, the Crescent-Stars are sure to have a bigger backing, with many thousands of Turkish emigrants having settled in Germany over the past 60 years.
Tactical Insights
Ralf Rangnick's Austria will likely maintain their high-pressing, fast-paced style that has brought them success so far in the tournament. Key to their strategy will be the dynamic midfield duo of Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer, who have been instrumental in both disrupting opponents' play and driving forward in attack. Austria's defense, marshaled by veteran Martin Hinteregger, will need to stay vigilant against Turkey's swift counter-attacks.
Turkey, on the other hand, will rely on their youthful exuberance and tactical discipline instilled by Vincenzo Montella. Their defensive setup, often spearheaded by Merih Demiral, will aim to frustrate the Austrian forwards. In attack, the experienced Cenk Tosun will be crucial, supported by the creative spark of Hakan Calhanoglu, whose set-piece prowess could be a game-changer.
Key Players to Watch
Austria: Marcel Sabitzer The Austrian captain has been a driving force for his team, not only in midfield but also in contributing crucial goals. His leadership and ability to dictate the tempo will be vital for Austria's success.
Turkey: Cenk Tosun The veteran striker has a knack for scoring important goals, as evidenced by his late winner against the Czech Republic. His experience and poise in front of goal will be essential for Turkey's hopes of progressing.
Match Prediction
This match promises to be a closely contested battle between two well-matched sides. Austria's recent form and their victory over the Netherlands suggest they might have the edge in terms of confidence and momentum. However, Turkey's resilience and the passionate support from their fans in Germany could level the playing field.
Austria's high-energy approach might test Turkey's young squad, but the Turks have shown they can handle pressure situations. If Austria can exploit Turkey's defensive lapses, they could secure a narrow victory. Conversely, if Turkey can withstand Austria's initial onslaught and utilize their counter-attacking prowess effectively, an upset could be on the cards.
Prediction: Austria 2-1 Turkey
As we look forward to this intriguing clash, both sets of fans will be hoping their team can make history by reaching the quarter-finals. With so much at stake and the promise of an exciting encounter, this is a match not to be missed
