Guinea-Bissau Vs Mali

The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifiers are heating up, and all eyes will be on Group I as Guinea-Bissau prepare to host Mali in the second fixture of their crucial October double-header. The two teams will meet again on Monday, this time at the Estadio Nacional 24 de Setembro in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau's capital, following their previous encounter in Bamako last Friday, where Mali secured a narrow 1-0 victory.

Mali, known as Les Aigles (The Eagles), are in fine form and will be aiming for their fifth consecutive victory over Guinea-Bissau. They’ve dominated the head-to-head record between these two sides and will look to maintain that dominance as they edge closer to securing a place in the 2025 AFCON tournament in Morocco. This second leg presents a vital opportunity for Guinea-Bissau to not only regain confidence but also potentially disrupt Mali’s stronghold in the group standings. However, history is not on the side of the Djurtus, as Guinea-Bissau's national team is often called, as they have struggled against Mali in their previous meetings.

Match Preview

Guinea-Bissau faced disappointment in the first leg of this double-header, falling to a 1-0 defeat against Mali at the Stade du 26 Mars in Bamako. Despite a strong effort, it was Stuttgart striker El Bilal Toure who broke the deadlock in the 62nd minute, handing Mali a deserved victory. This marked the second consecutive loss for Guinea-Bissau in their AFCON qualifying campaign, following a 2-1 defeat to Mozambique in September. The pressure is mounting for Luis Boa Morte's side, as they must now find a way to overturn their fortunes on home soil if they want to stay in contention for a spot in the tournament.

Guinea-Bissau's Form: A Struggle for Consistency

Guinea-Bissau’s form in recent months has been far from encouraging. The Djurtus have only managed one win in their last 10 matches across all competitions, a worrying statistic that highlights the challenge ahead for Boa Morte’s men. Their lone victory in this period came in their opening AFCON qualifying game on September 5, when they narrowly defeated Eswatini 1-0 thanks to a first-half goal from forward Bura Nogueira. However, that triumph was swiftly followed by a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Mozambique, leaving Guinea-Bissau with just three points from their opening three qualifying games.

This inconsistent form extends back to the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations tournament, where Guinea-Bissau failed to make it past the group stages. They lost all three of their Group A matches, including a heavy defeat to host nation Ivory Coast. It was a humbling exit for a team that had qualified with high hopes of making an impact on the continental stage. Their struggles in the tournament, combined with their poor run of results since then, have raised questions about their ability to compete at the highest level in African football.

Despite their current slump, Guinea-Bissau’s World Cup qualifying campaign has been more promising. The Djurtus currently sit second in Group A of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, trailing group leaders Egypt by four points. This position gives them a fighting chance of securing a place at the World Cup, but their immediate focus must be on improving their AFCON qualifying performance if they are to avoid further disappointment.

Guinea-Bissau vs Mali: Head-to-Head Record

When it comes to the head-to-head record between these two teams, Mali has been the dominant force. Guinea-Bissau has not beaten Mali in any of their last 15 meetings, a record that stretches back to 1984. In fact, Mali has won 12 of those encounters, with the remaining three matches ending in draws. This historical dominance was evident in their most recent meeting, where Mali secured a 1-0 victory in Bamako. El Bilal Toure’s goal ensured that Les Aigles continued their winning streak against the Djurtus, and they will be confident of making it five wins in a row when they travel to Bissau for Monday’s rematch.

Guinea-Bissau will need to summon a special performance if they are to break this long-standing curse against Mali. Their home ground, the Estadio Nacional 24 de Setembro, will need to be a fortress if they are to have any chance of securing a positive result. Boa Morte’s team must show resilience and tactical discipline, particularly in defense, where they will be tasked with keeping Mali’s dangerous attack at bay.

Mali: A Team in Form

In contrast to Guinea-Bissau’s struggles, Mali enters this fixture in excellent form. Tom Saintfiet’s side has been one of the standout teams in the 2025 AFCON qualifiers so far, and their victory on Friday only solidified their position at the top of Group I. Les Aigles have yet to taste defeat in this qualifying campaign, and they will be eager to extend that unbeaten run when they take on Guinea-Bissau again.

Mali’s journey in the AFCON qualifiers began with a somewhat frustrating 1-1 draw against Mozambique in Bamako. Despite dominating possession and creating several scoring opportunities, Saintfiet’s men were unable to secure all three points in that match. However, they quickly bounced back with a 1-0 win over Eswatini, thanks to an early goal from Yves Bissouma, and have since gone from strength to strength.

In fact, Mali’s recent form across all competitions has been impressive. Since their extra-time defeat to Ivory Coast in the 2023 AFCON quarter-finals, they have lost just one of their last seven matches, a 2-1 defeat to Ghana in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. In that time, Mali has recorded four wins and two draws, while keeping five clean sheets and scoring eight goals. This strong defensive record has been a key factor in their success, with the likes of Yves Bissouma and El Bilal Toure playing pivotal roles in both attack and defense.

Key Players to Watch

For Mali, the standout players in this fixture will likely be Yves Bissouma and El Bilal Toure. Bissouma, who plies his trade in the Premier League, has been a vital cog in Mali’s midfield, providing both defensive solidity and attacking creativity. His goal against Eswatini was a perfect example of his ability to influence games, and he will be looking to make a similar impact against Guinea-Bissau.

El Bilal Toure, who scored the winning goal in the first leg, will also be a key figure for Mali. The Stuttgart striker has been in fine form for both club and country, and his pace and finishing ability make him a constant threat to opposing defenses. Toure’s ability to find space and exploit defensive gaps will be crucial as Mali looks to secure back-to-back victories over Guinea-Bissau.

On the other side, Guinea-Bissau will be hoping that Bura Nogueira can rediscover his goal-scoring touch. The forward has been one of the few bright spots in what has been a difficult campaign for the Djurtus, and his goal against Eswatini shows that he has the ability to make a difference in big games. However, Nogueira will need more support from his teammates if Guinea-Bissau is to trouble Mali’s well-organized defense.

The Bigger Picture: AFCON Qualifying Landscape

The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers have been fiercely competitive, with teams from across the continent battling for a place in Morocco. Mali’s strong start to the campaign has put them in a commanding position in Group I, where they currently sit at the top of the standings with seven points from their first three games. With a two-point lead over second-placed Mozambique, a win on Monday would give Les Aigles a five-point cushion and move them one step closer to securing their spot in the tournament.

Guinea-Bissau, on the other hand, finds themselves in a more precarious position. With just three points from three games, the Djurtus are third in the group and in desperate need of a positive result to keep their qualification hopes alive. A defeat on Monday would leave them with an uphill battle to qualify, particularly with tough fixtures against Mozambique and Eswatini still to come.

For both teams, the stakes are high. AFCON qualification represents not only a chance to compete on one of African football’s biggest stages but also an opportunity to showcase their talent and boost their FIFA World Ranking. For Mali, a top-50 ranking is within reach if they continue their strong form, while Guinea-Bissau will be aiming to rise from their current position and re-establish themselves as a competitive force on the continent.

Conclusion: High Stakes in Bissau

As Guinea-Bissau prepares to host Mali for the second time in four days, the pressure is firmly on the home side to deliver a result. Mali, with their strong recent form and historical dominance, will be confident of securing another victory and tightening their grip on Group I. However, Guinea-Bissau will be determined to defy the odds and reignite their AFCON qualifying campaign with a much-needed win.