Italy vs Moldova | World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage | Pre Match
Italy vs Moldova
In a critical juncture for Italy’s footballing ambitions, the Azzurri face Moldova on Monday in a must-win World Cup 2026 qualifying match at the home of recently promoted Serie A club Sassuolo, as they desperately seek to salvage their faltering campaign. The weight of expectation hangs heavily over Luciano Spalletti’s squad, who are reeling from a disastrous 3-0 defeat to Norway in their opening Group I fixture. That loss, a sobering display of Italy’s vulnerabilities, has left the four-time World Cup winners staring down the barrel of another nerve-shredding playoff scenario, with the specter of missing a third consecutive global finals looming large. The match in Reggio Emilia represents not only an opportunity to secure three vital points but also a chance to restore some pride after a string of disappointing results, including a meek exit from Euro 2024 and a quarter-final loss in this year’s UEFA Nations League. For Spalletti, whose tenure as head coach is set to end following crisis talks with the Italian FA, this game marks a bittersweet farewell, as he aims to bow out with a performance that can spark hope for Italy’s future. Moldova, meanwhile, arrive as rank underdogs, but with Italy’s confidence shaken and their recent history of faltering in crucial moments, the Tricolorii will sense a rare opportunity to capitalize on their hosts’ growing anxiety and pull off a historic upset.
The Azzurri’s campaign got off to a catastrophic start in Oslo, where they were comprehensively outplayed by a clinical Norway side at Ullevaal Stadion. Despite dominating possession, Italy’s performance was marked by a lack of cutting edge in attack and alarming fragility at the back. Norway, led by the irrepressible Erling Haaland, exploited Italy’s high defensive line with devastating counter-attacks, racing into a three-goal lead by half-time. The Azzurri’s response was feeble, with their only shot on target coming in stoppage time via a header from substitute striker Lorenzo Lucca. The defeat exposed deep-seated issues within Spalletti’s squad, particularly their inability to convert possession into meaningful chances and their vulnerability to pacey, direct opponents. With Norway now nine points clear at the top of Group I—albeit with Italy holding two games in hand—the prospect of automatic qualification for the 2026 World Cup, co-hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico, is already slipping away. Italy’s recent history adds further pressure to the situation: their last World Cup appearance was a group-stage exit in Brazil 2014, and subsequent failures to qualify for Russia 2018 (losing to Sweden in the playoffs) and Qatar 2022 (infamously defeated by North Macedonia) have left deep scars. For a nation with such a storied footballing tradition, the possibility of missing a third straight World Cup is unthinkable, yet it remains a stark reality unless Spalletti’s side can turn things around, starting with a convincing victory over Moldova.
Moldova, for their part, are no strangers to being the underdogs, and their own qualifying campaign has been equally challenging. Sitting alongside Italy at the bottom of Group I with zero points, Serghei Clescenco’s side opened their account with a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Norway, followed by a 3-2 home defeat to Estonia. These results, coupled with a 1-1 draw against Gibraltar to close out 2024 and a 2-0 friendly loss to Poland on Friday, paint a picture of a team struggling to compete at this level. However, Moldova’s players will be buoyed by the memory of their shock 3-2 victory over Poland during Euro 2024 qualifying, a result that demonstrated their capacity to cause an upset when their opponents are under pressure. Against Italy, the Tricolorii will look to exploit any signs of nervousness, particularly given the Azzurri’s recent defensive frailties. Moldova’s historical record against Italy offers little cause for optimism—they have lost all four previous World Cup qualifiers between the two nations by an aggregate score of 9-2, with their most recent encounter, a friendly five years ago, ending in a 6-0 rout. Yet, with Italy in disarray and Spalletti’s departure imminent, Moldova may sense a rare opportunity to make history by toppling one of football’s giants.
Spalletti’s tactical approach has come under scrutiny following the Norway debacle, but the outgoing coach has confirmed he will stick with his preferred 3-5-2 formation for the Moldova clash. However, he has promised significant changes to his starting XI, signaling a desire to inject fresh energy into a squad that looked lethargic and uninspired in Oslo. Injuries and withdrawals have further complicated matters, with key players such as Fiorentina’s Moise Kean, Juventus’ Manuel Locatelli, and defensive trio Riccardo Calafiori, Alessandro Buongiorno, and Matteo Gabbia all ruled out. Veteran defender Francesco Acerbi also declined a recall, citing a lack of respect, leaving Spalletti with a depleted roster. The decision to start debutant Diego Coppola in the back three against Norway backfired, as the young defender struggled to cope with Norway’s pace and physicality, raising questions about who will line up in front of captain Gianluigi Donnarumma on Monday. Spalletti is likely to turn to players like Andrea Cambiaso, Samuele Ricci, and Davide Frattesi, who could bring dynamism and creativity to a midfield that was overrun in the previous match. Cambiaso’s versatility, Ricci’s composure on the ball, and Frattesi’s box-to-box energy could provide the spark Italy so desperately needs, while the likes of Lucca and Mateo Retegui will be tasked with improving the team’s woeful attacking output.
Moldova, meanwhile, face their own selection challenges, with Otelul Galati winger Maxim Cojocaru suspended after receiving a red card against Estonia. The Tricolorii will rely heavily on their all-time leading scorer, Ion Nicolaescu, who has netted 17 goals for his country and will lead the line as a lone striker. Nicolaescu is likely to be supported by Slaven Belupo forward Mihail Caimacov, while Torino’s teenage prospect Sergiu Perciun, who made his senior debut as a substitute against Poland, will be pushing for a starting role. Veteran midfielder Artur Ionita, who has spent much of his career in Italy with clubs like Cagliari, brings experience and familiarity with Italian football, which could prove invaluable in navigating the hostile atmosphere in Reggio Emilia. Moldova’s game plan will likely center on staying compact defensively and looking to hit Italy on the counter, a strategy that proved effective for Norway. While their chances of victory remain slim, the Tricolorii will draw inspiration from Italy’s recent struggles and the pressure cooker environment that awaits them.
For Italy, the match against Moldova is more than just a qualifier—it is a chance to restore faith in a project that has been unraveling since their Euro 2020 triumph. The decision to part ways with Spalletti, who guided Napoli to a historic Serie A title in 2023, reflects the Italian FA’s frustration with the team’s regression. The loss to Norway, coupled with earlier disappointments at Euro 2024 and the Nations League, has pushed the Azzurri to a new low, and a convincing performance is essential to lift the spirits of a disillusioned fanbase. While Moldova are unlikely to pose the same threat as Norway, the psychological weight of Italy’s recent failures could make this a trickier encounter than expected. A victory would provide a temporary reprieve and keep Italy’s playoff hopes alive, but anything less than three points would deepen the crisis and further erode confidence in a squad that once ruled the world. As the Allianz Arena prepares to host this pivotal clash, the eyes of Italian football will be fixed on Reggio Emilia, hoping for a performance that can reignite their World Cup dreams.
