Kazakhstan Vs Northern Macedonia

North Macedonia will have an excellent opportunity to climb to the top of their World Cup qualifying group if they can secure a victory over Kazakhstan on Monday at the Astana Arena. The current standings reveal a tight five-team group, where the hosts, Kazakhstan, sit in third place with just three points from two matches. In contrast, North Macedonia has accumulated five points across three fixtures, positioning them two points shy of group leaders Wales. Notably, North Macedonia held Belgium to a resilient 1-1 draw on Friday, which highlights their determination and competitive edge.

When analyzing Kazakhstan’s recent form, they emerged victorious in their most recent qualifying match on March 25, defeating Liechtenstein 2-0. Impressively, Kazakhstan restricted their opponents to only three shots, with the final one taking place as early as the 33rd minute—an indicator of their effectiveness in limiting inviting positions for the opposition.

Nevertheless, it’s important to underscore that Kazakhstan has displayed significant defensive frailties: in their last ten outings across competitions, they've conceded a total of 24 goals—an average nearing 2.5 goals against per game—which underscores their defensive vulnerability and could embolden North Macedonia’s attacking ambitions.

Ali Aliev’s side has yet to achieve a breakthrough in World Cup qualification as an independent nation, and the prospect of reaching the 2026 Finals seems distant, given the strength of their group rivals, which includes seasoned teams like Belgium and Wales.

Consider their overall performances: in their last four matches across all competitions, Kazakhstan secured just two wins and suffered two losses. Expand that window, and their numbers dip further: over their last 15 matches, the national team has only achieved two victories against a staggering twelve defeats, painting a concerning picture of inconsistency and instability in results.

Focusing on their home form, Kazakhstan managed a 2-0 win over Curacao on March 19 at Astana Arena. However, when reviewing their previous five home matches, they experienced three losses and one draw, implying that their advantage of playing on home soil doesn’t necessarily translate into positive outcomes at this time.

On the other hand, North Macedonia enters this qualifying clash under the guidance of Blagoja Milevski, who can draw confidence from his team’s steadfast defensive performance. Against Belgium, the team recorded just 32% possession, but what stood out was their ability to match Belgium's high-quality chances—they conceded only one shot inside the penalty area during the second half. This defensive organization and tactical awareness offer encouragement that they can frustrate stronger teams.

More broadly, North Macedonia is riding an unbeaten run of nine matches, winning six of those fixtures. Among those victories, their defensive resilience was a key factor. Indeed, in the six matches they won—against Armenia twice, Latvia twice, Faroe Islands, and Liechtenstein—they kept six clean sheets. While it’s important to contextualize that Armenia, the highest-ranked opposition in that list, sat at 102nd in the FIFA rankings, shutouts nonetheless reflect an organized and compact backline.

In their previous qualification clash against Kazakhstan in June 2021, North Macedonia secured a 4-0 win. That match was influenced by Kazakhstan’s sending off in the 45th minute, which played a significant role—but nonetheless, history shows that North Macedonia has previously asserted dominance over this opponent.

When considering away form more widely, North Macedonia has claimed victory in three and settled for a draw in one of their last four trips abroad. However, prior to that run, they endured five consecutive defeats on the road. This contrast shows that while travel could present challenges, recent away performances suggest adaptation and improving resilience beyond home confines.

Bringing all this together, North Macedonia could make a crucial leap up the standings with a win in Astana, capitalizing on Kazakhstan’s defensive weaknesses and their own growing form and tactical clarity under Milevski. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, must tighten up defensively if they have ambitions of competing meaningfully in this group.

By way of elaboration: North Macedonia’s prospects hinge on maintaining their defensive solidity, as evidenced by limiting Belgium to minimal chances, combined with converting possession-limited performances into counter-attacking effectiveness. They will need to replicate that structure and intensity against Kazakhstan, who have conceded frequently, often leaving exploitable spaces.

Kazakhstan, for their part, will need to reassess their defensive shape ahead of this match. Despite limiting Liechtenstein to only three shots in their last outing, that performance seems to have been influenced by opponent quality rather than tactical brilliance. Their broader defensive statistics—24 conceded in 10 fixtures—point to structural vulnerabilities, perhaps around transitions and set-piece organization.

Manager Ali Aliev must extract more consistency from his team, particularly at home, where the advantage has not translated into results. While the 2-0 win over Curacao offers a glimmer of hope, their record of three losses and one draw in five prior home games paints a more worrying picture.

North Macedonia’s qualifying campaign so far has been defined by steady accumulation—beginning with draws against Wales and Belgium, followed by wins against lower-ranked sides in the group. Their approach, seemingly centered on defensive organization, selective possession, and opportunistic attacking, appears to have served them well, bridging higher-caliber opposition with achievable victories.

It’s worth noting that their unbeaten nine-match streak is more than a statistical oddity; it demonstrates a consistently effective blueprint. Winning six out of nine, with clean sheets in each victory, delivers momentum—and is a method to intimidate opponents hungry for points, such as Wales and Belgium.

Meanwhile, the group dynamics remain tightly contested. At this early juncture in qualifying, every point holds magnified significance, especially with only ten games to be played across five teams—meaning four games at home and four away for each nation. Wales currently leads the table with seven points from three games, ahead of North Macedonia’s five and Kazakhstan’s three.

An upside for Kazakhstan is the home-ground factor, despite their inconsistent history there; Astana Arena provides familiar conditions, support, and possibly climatic adjustment in late May, which could favor the hosts—provided they can rectify their defensive lapses.

North Macedonia, conversely, brings psychological advantage from their recent 1-1 draw against Belgium and their historical 4-0 win over Kazakhstan. Maintaining the psychological momentum will be crucial—believing in their capacity to compete can fuel performance in matches where individual moments matter.

Looking ahead, a win for North Macedonia would put them at eight points, overtaking Wales and establishing themselves as group front-runners. Such a position could recalibrate the balance of the group, exerting pressure on both Wales and Kazakhstan in subsequent fixtures. Conversely, a home win for Kazakhstan would move them level with North Macedonia, intensify competition for the top two spots, and raise their hopes of progression.

Ultimately, this match features a clash of form and structure: North Macedonia’s methodical, unbeaten ascendancy clashing with Kazakhstan’s inconsistent yet potentially winding developmental trajectory. Fans and analysts will be closely watching whether North Macedonia can exploit Kazakhstan’s defensive issues to assert themselves, or if the hosts can surprise at home and prohibit the visitors from leapfrogging their rivals.

As Monday approaches, anticipation builds around whether North Macedonia will capitalize on their strong foundation and Kazakhstan’s noted weaknesses—or whether Astana hosts will respond with defensive recalibration and secure a vital win.