Lesotho Vs Gabon

In their fourth match of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifying campaign, Lesotho will be aiming to secure their first victory in Group B. They are set to host Gabon on Tuesday at Moses Mabhida Stadium, hoping to turn around their fortunes in a challenging qualification journey. With only one point on the board after three matches, Lesotho finds themselves at the bottom of the group, while Gabon occupies the second spot with four points and currently holds one of the two qualifying positions available in the group.

Match Overview

Lesotho’s journey in the 2025 AFCON qualifiers has been fraught with difficulties, but their most recent outing offered a glimmer of hope. On Friday, they held Gabon to a goalless draw, earning their first point of the campaign. The team displayed resolute defensive discipline, successfully nullifying Gabon’s attacking threats despite the visitors controlling 72% of the possession. It was a much-needed boost for a team struggling to find form, particularly after their earlier defeats in the qualifiers.

The goalless draw against Gabon followed a string of losses for Lesotho. On September 5, they were defeated 3-1 by the Central African Republic, a match that exposed their defensive vulnerabilities. Four days later, they suffered a narrow 1-0 loss to Morocco, where despite a more solid defensive showing, they struggled to create meaningful chances. In their three matches thus far, Lesotho has only managed to generate two significant scoring opportunities, highlighting their challenges in attack.

Head coach Leslie Notsi has been at the helm since June 2023 and is under immense pressure to guide Lesotho, affectionately known as "Likuena" (the Crocodiles), to their first-ever AFCON tournament. Notsi’s tenure has been a difficult one, with the team failing to win any of their last seven matches. In that period, they have drawn twice and lost five times, scoring just four goals while conceding 11. These results have left Lesotho in a precarious position in Group B, with their hopes of qualification hanging by a thread.

Notsi’s squad has also struggled at home, where they have failed to capitalize on the advantages of playing in front of their own supporters. In their last nine home games, they have drawn three and lost six. This poor form at home contrasts with their earlier performances when they had won three of four home fixtures prior to their current slump. Tuesday’s game against Gabon presents a crucial opportunity to break this negative trend and revive their qualification hopes.

Gabon’s Perspective

In contrast, Gabon’s qualifying campaign has been a mixed bag so far, but they remain in a strong position to advance. The Panthers opened their campaign with a 4-1 defeat against Morocco on September 6. That match was a particularly challenging one for the Gabonese side, as they conceded two penalties within the first 26 minutes, setting the tone for a difficult evening. Despite the heavy loss, Gabon quickly regrouped and secured a crucial 2-0 victory over the Central African Republic just four days later. In that match, Gabon dominated the attacking stats, registering 10 shots from inside the penalty area compared to their opponent’s four.

Since the appointment of manager Thierry Mouyouma in late 2023, Gabon has shown signs of improvement. Mouyouma succeeded Patrice Neveu, who had failed to qualify Gabon for the 2023 AFCON, and has since been tasked with revitalizing the team’s fortunes. Under Mouyouma’s leadership, Gabon has played nine matches, winning four, drawing two, and losing three. His tenure has seen the team claim two victories in their last four outings, with star player Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang playing a pivotal role.

Aubameyang, the former Arsenal and Barcelona forward, remains Gabon’s talisman and has been in fine form in recent weeks. The veteran striker has scored three of his team’s six goals in their last four matches, proving that even in the latter stages of his career, he still possesses the quality to make a difference on the international stage. Aubameyang’s leadership and experience will be crucial as Gabon looks to secure qualification for the AFCON, particularly given their recent struggles on the road.

Despite their strong position in Group B, Gabon’s away form is a cause for concern. They have lost their last three matches away from home and have suffered five defeats in their last seven fixtures on the road. This inconsistency when playing away from home could potentially undermine their qualification bid, especially if Lesotho can take advantage of Gabon’s travel woes.

Lesotho’s Struggles

Lesotho’s journey in this qualifying campaign reflects a team that has struggled to find a balance between attack and defense. The Crocodiles have conceded 11 goals in their last seven matches, while only scoring four. This disparity highlights their issues at both ends of the pitch, with the team lacking both a reliable goal scorer and defensive solidity.

One of the main challenges facing Notsi is the lack of attacking firepower. In their three qualifying matches, Lesotho has only produced two big chances, a stark contrast to Gabon, who managed to create 10 shots from inside the box in a single game against the Central African Republic. This lack of creativity in the final third has been a major hindrance for Lesotho, who have often found themselves on the back foot in matches.

In defense, while Lesotho managed to keep a clean sheet against Gabon on Friday, their overall defensive record has been less than impressive. Conceding 11 goals in seven games is a worrying statistic, and if they are to have any hope of qualifying for their first AFCON tournament, they will need to tighten up at the back. Notsi has tried to implement a more organized defensive structure, but individual errors and lapses in concentration have often cost them dearly.

Gabon’s Strengths and Weaknesses

For Gabon, the key to their success lies in their ability to utilize their attacking talent effectively. Aubameyang is undoubtedly the focal point of their attack, but he is supported by a cast of talented players, including midfielder Mario Lemina and winger Denis Bouanga. Lemina’s ability to control the tempo of the game and Bouanga’s pace and dribbling skills make Gabon a dangerous team going forward.

However, their defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in away matches, have been a recurring issue. The 4-1 defeat to Morocco was a stark reminder of their defensive frailties, and they will need to be more solid at the back if they are to secure the points they need to qualify for the AFCON. Mouyouma has focused on tightening the defense since taking over, but their recent away form suggests that there is still work to be done.

One of the key factors in Tuesday’s match will be whether Gabon can break down a resolute Lesotho defense. In Friday’s goalless draw, Gabon dominated possession but struggled to create clear-cut chances, a problem that has plagued them in recent matches. If they can improve their creativity in the final third and convert their possession into meaningful opportunities, they should have the quality to overcome Lesotho.

What’s at Stake

For Lesotho, Tuesday’s match represents a do-or-die scenario. With only one point from their opening three games, they are in desperate need of a victory to keep their slim qualification hopes alive. A win would not only boost their chances of making it to the 2025 AFCON but also provide a much-needed morale boost for a team that has been struggling in recent months.

For Gabon, a win would put them in a strong position to qualify for the AFCON, but anything less could open the door for the Central African Republic to overtake them in the standings. With only two qualification spots available in Group B, Gabon cannot afford to drop points, particularly against the group’s bottom side.

The stage is set for an intriguing encounter at Moses Mabhida Stadium, with both teams needing a positive result for very different reasons. Lesotho will be hoping to channel the spirit of their defensive display from Friday, while Gabon will be looking to assert their dominance and take a step closer to securing their place in the 2025 AFCON.