Madagascar Vs Eswatini

Madagascar enters its decisive group-stage showdown at the 2025 COSAFA Cup with everything to play for. On Monday afternoon, they will meet Eswatini at the Dr Petrus Molemela Stadium, with a spot in the knockout rounds squarely at stake. The stakes couldn’t be higher for both teams: Madagascar seeks to keep its winning momentum going and earn a berth in the next phase, while Eswatini aims to finally break its duck in the tournament and gain a foothold in the competition.

Madagascar’s journey started positively, and with one point from this match they will mathematically guarantee their progression. Yet Eswatini, struggling to find form, come in desperate to collect their first victory in the group. Their ambitions are to get on the scoreboard and revive hopes of a stint beyond this stage.

Madagascar began their COSAFA Cup campaign with a tense but ultimately rewarding clash against Tanzania. It was their first competitive outing since a disappointing 3–0 drubbing by Ghana during the March international break. That result had cast doubts over their attacking efficiency, but in South Africa, they displayed enough tenacity to secure all three points. Although chances were limited, it was the ever-reliable Toky Rakotondraibe who delivered with a timely strike just before the half-hour. That lone goal, emblematic of their recent inconsistencies in front of goal, proved to be sufficient.

The victory not only gave them an early boost but set them on course to navigate Group C successfully. The team—nicknamed the Barea—would now like nothing more than to reach the semi-finals, a feat not achieved since their remarkable 2018 run. In that campaign, they amassed seven out of nine possible points during group play and went on to upset South Africa in the quarter-final stage. With only a point separating Madagascar from a return to those heights, there is both confidence and pressure in equal measure.

What adds spice to Monday’s fixture is its familiarity. This is not the first time Madagascar and Eswatini have locked horns on regional soil—it’s the third meeting in just six months. Late last year, the two nations clashed over two legs in a qualifying contest for the African Nations Championship. Eswatini prevailed narrowly 1–0 in the second leg, but Madagascar’s advantage from the first leg’s 2–0 triumph was enough to seal aggregate victory. That result punched Madagascar’s ticket to the continental competition set for August.

Despite recent success between the teams, Madagascar's overall record in head-to-heads leaves something to be desired. Historically, they have only emerged victorious once in their past four encounters—an underwhelming return that belies their potential. Still, their ability to do what matters, as seen in their decisive Nations Championship fixture, hints that this one-off meeting in the COSAFA Cup could once again slip in their favor.

For Eswatini, the regional tournament has long held untapped promise. They have been fixtures in the COSAFA Cup for many years, but progress has always been elusive. Their best performance came back in 2016 and then again in 2021, with both years yielding third-place finishes. That remains their greatest success—having never lifted the trophy or featured in a final. Even so, despite its promise, the team are regulars in the group stages, and on just one occasion in their last six tournament appearances did they fail to make it past the first round. This consistency suggests a side that, for all its shortcomings, cannot be underestimated on home soil.

Their current coach, Zdravko Logarusic, would know better than most that this tournament could be a turning point. Under his leadership, the team have shown encouraging glimpses of form—they come into Monday’s fixture unbeaten in their past three matches across all competitions. That statistic could be misleading, though: their most recent defeat was in the late stages of 2024, when they were edged out by this same Madagascar outfit. So while the unbeaten run sounds impressive, in reality it masks a shortage of victories and offensive productivity.

Eswatini’s last match was a thrilling 3–3 stalemate against Mauritius—their most entertaining encounter in recent memory. It produced goals and drama in abundance, with the Sihlangu Semnikati showcasing what they can do when everything clicks. But it was more anomaly than norm; previous performances had been blighted by a striking deficiency. In three of their previous four games, they had failed to find the net, a statistic that underlines their broader struggles.

Offensive issues are something Logarusic’s side must correct if they hope to act as spoilers on Monday. They simply must find creativity and ruthlessness in the final third that has long eluded them. A failure to do so could spell elimination, because even a draw would be insufficient to guarantee them safe passage—and, in fact, would plunge Group C back into ambiguity ahead of their closing game against Tanzania on Wednesday.

For Madagascar, the path is simpler: a draw is enough, and victory would send them directly into the knockout rounds, completing what would be a textbook group performance. One can imagine the tension among the Barea squad—knowing that a single point separates them from continued contention, and that complacency is not part of their lexicon. The onus will be on coach Corentin Martins to keep his team focused and avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence.

Martins’ squad selection, his tactical adjustments, and how he chooses to approach the game’s tempo will be critical. If they can impose their style, reminiscent of their disciplined efforts in the Tanzania game—tight defense, proactive midfield, and timely finishing—they can keep pace and, likely, surpass expectations. But Eswatini may have other ideas; they have often punched above their weight when highly motivated, and the historical rivalry and recent familiarity could fuel another upset.

Behind the matchday drama, the broader themes of hope and redemption linger. For Madagascar, the 2025 COSAFA Cup offers a second wind just months after their dormant phase post-March. For Eswatini, it is a chance to rewrite their narrative—no longer mere participants, but contenders with fire in their bellies. Dr Petrus Molemela Stadium serves as the stage: a cauldron of noise, anticipation, and national pride. The African mid-afternoon sun will bear witness to whether Madagascar’s recent strength holds firm, or whether Eswatini can spring a surprise and begin their journey with a historic first victory in the group.

The fans of Madagascar will be vocal, acutely aware of the stakes, and praying for another solid performance. They remember the past—both the brilliance of 2018 and the frustration of recent inefficiencies in crucial moments. They know that a single goal could be enough, and they won’t ask for much more. Meanwhile, Eswatini’s supporters will be watching closely, hoping for a breakthrough—a galvanizing moment to revive spirits, not only in this match, but for the tournament as a whole.

Come kick-off, the narrative is set: the Barea, on track to secure a semi-final bid; the Sihlangu Semnikati, attempting to shake off years of group-stage heartbreak. With everything on the line, it will be a match defined by margins. A lapse, a moment of brilliance, a defensive misread or an inspired save could shift momentum entirely. But whichever way the result goes, we will know—by the final whistle—whether Madagascar have done just enough to keep their dreams burning, or whether Eswatini have delivered a statement victory and breathed new life into their campaign.