Mainz 05 vs. Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | Pre Match
Mainz 05 vs. Bayer Leverkusen
As the 2024-25 Bundesliga season reaches its crescendo, Bayer Leverkusen, the dethroned champions, travel to Mewa Arena on Saturday to face sixth-placed Mainz 05 in a match that carries significant implications for the hosts’ European ambitions. Leverkusen, with 68 points, have secured second place despite a disappointing 4-2 defeat to Borussia Dortmund on May 11, a result that exposed defensive frailties in an otherwise stellar campaign. Mainz, meanwhile, sit on 51 points, clinging to the Conference League qualification spot by virtue of a superior goal difference over seventh-placed RB Leipzig. Their emphatic 4-1 victory over VfL Bochum on May 10 marked a return to winning ways after a barren run, but their hopes of climbing higher—potentially to a Europa League spot—hinge on an unlikely combination of results, including a Borussia Dortmund loss to relegated Holstein Kiel and a significant swing in goal difference. For Leverkusen, under the outgoing Xabi Alonso, the match offers a chance to end a remarkable tenure on a high note, while Mainz, led by Bo Henriksen, are desperate to secure European football and cap a season of resilience. This clash, set against the vibrant backdrop of Mewa Arena, pits a Mainz side buoyed by home support against a Leverkusen team looking to overcome recent inconsistencies, with the outcome poised to shape both clubs’ narratives as they head into the offseason.
Mainz 05’s campaign has been a tale of promise tempered by inconsistency, and their final match against Leverkusen represents a critical opportunity to secure a European berth that would validate their efforts. The 4-1 triumph over Bochum was a statement of intent, with Mainz showcasing their attacking potency in a second half that saw them score three goals, create three big chances, and stifle Bochum’s threat entirely. This victory snapped a seven-game winless streak—comprising three losses and four draws—that had extinguished their Champions League aspirations and left them scrapping for a lesser European prize. Henriksen, a manager known for his pragmatic approach, will be acutely aware that Mainz’s defensive record is a glaring weakness, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches and conceding 15 goals in their previous eight. This vulnerability could prove costly against a Leverkusen side renowned for its attacking flair. However, Mainz’s home form offers cause for optimism. While their four most recent matches at Mewa Arena have ended in draws, they had previously won six of seven home games, a record that underscores their ability to harness the energy of their passionate supporters. With only a three-point gap to fifth-placed Dortmund and a five-goal difference deficit to overcome, a Europa League spot remains a mathematical possibility, though it requires both a commanding performance against Leverkusen and favorable results elsewhere. Henriksen’s challenge is to galvanize a squad depleted by injuries, instilling the belief that they can upset a Leverkusen team that, despite its pedigree, has shown signs of fragility in recent weeks.
Bayer Leverkusen, by contrast, approach this fixture with the bittersweet clarity of a team that has already achieved its primary objective—second place—but is grappling with the disappointment of relinquishing their Bundesliga crown. The 4-2 loss to Dortmund was a jarring reminder of their defensive shortcomings, as they conceded four goals despite facing just 1.16 xG, a statistic that will trouble Alonso as he prepares for his final match in charge. The Spaniard, who has announced his departure in the summer, has overseen a transformative era at Leverkusen, and his desire to end his reign with a victory is palpable, even if the stakes are lower for his side. Leverkusen’s recent form has been patchy, with three draws and one defeat in their last five Bundesliga matches, a dip that contrasts with their earlier dominance. Their defensive woes are particularly concerning, having conceded six goals in their last two games—more than in their previous six combined. On the road, Leverkusen have been inconsistent, drawing their two most recent away matches and splitting their prior four with two wins and two losses. Yet, their historical edge over Mainz—evidenced by a 1-0 victory on January 14, courtesy of Alejandro Grimaldo’s decisive strike, and four wins in their last five encounters—provides a foundation for confidence. Alonso’s task is to rally a squad facing potential upheaval, with key players like Jeremie Frimpong and Florian Wirtz linked with moves elsewhere, and deliver a performance that reflects the high standards he has set during his tenure.
The personnel challenges facing both teams add a layer of complexity to this encounter. Mainz are severely hampered by injuries, particularly in defense, where center-backs Dominik Kohr and Moritz Jenz are sidelined, and goalkeeper Robin Zentner is also unavailable. This forces Henriksen to rely on a makeshift back three of Danny da Costa, Stefan Bell, and Andreas Hanche-Olsen, with Lasse Riess likely to deputize in goal. The absence of these key figures places additional pressure on Mainz’s midfield and attack to deliver. Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri, who formed a double pivot in the Bochum win, are expected to anchor the midfield, providing stability and creativity for attackers Paul Nebel, Jae-sung Lee, and Jonathan Burkardt. Burkardt, in particular, will be crucial, as his goal-scoring instincts could exploit Leverkusen’s recent defensive lapses. Henriksen’s ability to organize his depleted squad into a cohesive unit, capable of balancing defensive solidity with attacking intent, will be pivotal, especially given Mainz’s propensity to concede goals and the need to secure a result that keeps their European hopes alive.
Leverkusen, too, are grappling with injury concerns, particularly in defense, where Jeanuel Belocian, Mario Hermoso, and Nordi Mukiele are ruled out. This leaves Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah, and Piero Hincapie as the likely defensive trio, a unit that must improve on its recent performances to contain Mainz’s attacking threat. The potential departure of Frimpong, rumored to be a target for Liverpool, adds an emotional subtext to his performance, as the dynamic wing-back will aim to leave a lasting impression in what could be his final game for Leverkusen. In attack, the absence of Martin Terrier due to an Achilles tendon injury elevates the importance of Florian Wirtz, another player linked with a move, who is expected to start alongside Emiliano Buendia and Patrik Schick. Wirtz’s creativity and Schick’s finishing prowess make Leverkusen a formidable proposition, even in the face of their defensive uncertainties. Alonso’s challenge is to ensure his team maintains its attacking intensity while addressing the defensive lapses that have crept into their game, providing a fitting send-off for both himself and the players who may follow him out the door.
The broader implications of this match resonate for both clubs. For Mainz, securing a Conference League spot would be a significant achievement, offering a platform to build on in the coming seasons and rewarding their fans’ unwavering support. A Europa League berth, though improbable, would be a dream scenario, elevating the club’s profile and financial prospects. Failure to secure European football, however, could dampen the momentum generated by their Bochum win and raise questions about Henriksen’s ability to address their defensive frailties. For Leverkusen, the match is a chance to bid farewell to Alonso with a performance that encapsulates the attacking philosophy and resilience he instilled. A victory would provide closure to a season of near-excellence, while also serving as a reminder of the club’s potential as they transition to new leadership. The historical context of Leverkusen’s dominance over Mainz, combined with the contrasting stakes—European qualification versus a symbolic flourish—sets the stage for a compelling narrative. As Mewa Arena prepares to host this season finale, Mainz’s desperation for a result will clash with Leverkusen’s desire for a triumphant exit, promising a match that encapsulates the drama and emotion of the Bundesliga’s closing chapter.
