Nacional Vs Estrela

Nacional will aim to strengthen their position and create further distance from the Primeira Liga’s relegation zone when they welcome struggling Estrela Amadora to the Estádio da Madeira this Sunday in a crucial Round 28 encounter. Currently, the hosts find themselves in a relatively stable mid-table position, sitting five places and six points above the dreaded relegation playoff spot. Their campaign so far has been a mix of resilience and inconsistency, with 29 points accumulated from eight victories, five draws, and 14 defeats. On the other hand, Estrela Amadora arrive in dire straits, occupying the 16th-place relegation playoff position, desperately needing points to climb out of danger.  

The recent form of Nacional has been a rollercoaster, epitomized by their inability to sustain momentum following positive results. Just last weekend, they suffered a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Santa Clara, failing to build on their previous victory over Casa Pia. This result was a stark reminder of their ongoing struggles with consistency, as they have alternated between wins and losses in their last five matches. A concerning pattern has emerged in these games—when Nacional loses, they often fail to score, as evidenced by their three goalless defeats in this sequence. However, despite these setbacks, there have been signs of gradual improvement over the course of the season.  

Since the beginning of 2025, Nacional have shown a marked upturn in form, securing five wins and collecting 16 points—a significant improvement compared to their disappointing tally of just 13 points from the first 16 matches of the season. What has been particularly impressive during this resurgence is their attacking output, as they have scored at least two goals in each of those five victories. Defensively, they have also been more resilient at home, with their only defeat at the Estádio da Madeira in 2025 coming against Arouca in a narrow 2-1 loss. Their other four defeats this year have all come on the road against top-five opposition, suggesting that they remain vulnerable against the league’s elite but have become increasingly difficult to beat when facing teams around them in the table.  

This bodes well for their upcoming clash against Estrela Amadora, as Nacional have demonstrated an ability to capitalize on matches against fellow strugglers. In their two most recent encounters against teams that began the matchweek below them in the standings—SC Farense and AVS—they emerged victorious on both occasions. This trend suggests that they are well-equipped to handle the pressure of a relegation six-pointer, making them favorites heading into Sunday’s fixture. Furthermore, their home form in 2025 has been a key factor in their revival, with 13 points taken from six matches at the Estádio da Madeira. This strong home record provides an additional psychological boost as they prepare to face an Estrela side that has been woeful on their travels.  

For Estrela Amadora, this match comes at an inopportune time, as they are mired in a dismal run of form. They arrive on the back of five consecutive winless matches, including back-to-back defeats in which they failed to score a single goal. After grinding out three consecutive draws—a run that at least provided some semblance of stability—they were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Vitória de Guimarães before suffering a humbling 3-0 defeat at the hands of league leaders Sporting Lisbon in their last outing. These results have only deepened their relegation fears, leaving them stranded in 16th place with just 23 points from five wins, eight draws, and 14 defeats.  

Their last victory came on February 14th, when they narrowly defeated bottom-placed Boavista, ending a dismal run of two draws and four losses. However, that win remains their only triumph in their last 12 league matches, highlighting the scale of their struggles. Compounding their misery is their dreadful away record—Estrela have managed just seven points from 13 away matches this season, scoring a paltry five goals while conceding 19. This makes them the second-worst traveling team in the division, a statistic that will hardly inspire confidence ahead of their trip to face a Nacional side that has been strong at home.  

Despite their overall struggles, Estrela can take some solace from their recent head-to-head record against Nacional. They have won two of the last three meetings between the two sides, including a 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season. This historical edge could provide a glimmer of hope for José Faria’s men, who are in desperate need of a positive result to reignite their survival hopes. However, given their current form and Nacional’s recent home strength, the odds are firmly stacked against them.  

As the match approaches, the stakes could not be higher for both teams. Nacional will be eager to solidify their place in the top flight and move further away from the relegation scrap, while Estrela Amadora face a must-win scenario if they are to keep their survival hopes alive. With Nacional’s attacking resurgence and Estrela’s defensive frailties, this encounter promises to be a tense and hard-fought battle, where every moment could prove decisive in shaping the fate of these two clubs as the season enters its decisive phase.