St Pauli vs. Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | Pre Match
St Pauli vs. Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund will hope to make a late push for the Bundesliga’s European spots when they visit Millerntor-Stadion on Saturday to take on St Pauli, a clash that pits a resurgent BVB against a team teetering above the relegation fray. Dortmund, buoyed by a 6-0 thrashing of Union Berlin on February 22, sit 10th with 32 points, their attacking explosion marking Niko Kovac’s first Bundesliga win as manager and signaling a potential turning point in a season where they’ve lost nine of 23 games. St Pauli, meanwhile, languish in 15th with 21 points, their 2-0 loss to Mainz 05 on the same date extending a three-game losing streak and a four-match winless run. The Kiezkicker held firm until Jae-Sung Lee’s 67th-minute opener, but their failure to convert two big chances left them goalless for a third straight match, a drought that underscores their woes. Dortmund’s six-point gap to fifth-placed Mainz, who hold the Europa League spot, keeps European hopes alive, and their dominance in the reverse fixture—a 2-1 win on October 18, sealed by Serhou Guirassy’s 83rd-minute strike—suggests they can capitalize on St Pauli’s fragility, especially given the hosts’ dismal home record of two wins in 11.
St Pauli’s precarious position in the Bundesliga, fourth from bottom with 21 points, leaves them just one spot and six points clear of 16th-placed Heidenheim’s relegation playoff berth, a buffer Alexander Blessin will cling to despite their recent slide. The 2-0 defeat to Mainz exposed familiar flaws: they resisted until the 67th minute, avoiding big chances against until Lee struck, but squandered two of their own, stretching their goalless run to three games. This follows a broader slump—three straight losses and no wins in four—after a brief uptick of two consecutive victories. At Millerntor-Stadion, their record is dire, with just two wins, six losses, and three draws in 11 home matches, a frailty Dortmund, who’ve won two of their last three away games, will aim to exploit. The October 2-1 loss to BVB saw St Pauli generate chances but falter, Guirassy’s late winner punishing their wastefulness. Blessin’s side averages 0.91 goals per game (21 in 23), while conceding 1.65 (38), starkly contrasting Dortmund’s 1.74 scored (40) and 1.39 conceded (32), setting up a David-versus-Goliath battle where St Pauli’s home struggles could prove decisive.
Dortmund’s 6-0 demolition of Union Berlin was a statement of intent, their nine big chances, nearly five expected goals (xG), and 20 of 24 shots from inside the box overwhelming their foes, a haul matching their total goals from the prior five games combined. Sitting 10th with 32 points, BVB’s nine losses in 23 matches belie their potential, and this rout—Kovac’s first league win—could ignite a charge toward Europe, just six points behind Mainz. The October 2-1 win over St Pauli showcased their dominance, seven big chances yielding a late Guirassy decider, and Saturday’s clash offers a chance to replicate that control. Recent form had been patchy—one loss and one draw in three before Union—but three wins in the prior four hint at momentum. Away from home, Dortmund have won two of their last three but lost four of six, a mixed bag against St Pauli’s two home wins in 11. With 40 goals scored and 32 conceded, BVB’s attack, averaging 1.74 per game, should test St Pauli’s leaky defense (1.65 conceded), especially after the hosts’ third straight blank.
St Pauli’s home woes at Millerntor-Stadion—two wins, six losses, three draws in 11—paint a bleak picture as they brace for Dortmund’s visit, their 2-0 loss to Mainz part of a three-game skid that’s seen them scoreless since early February. Blessin’s men held Mainz at bay until the 67th, but Lee’s goal and a late second exposed a defense conceding 1.65 goals per game, while their two big chances went begging, a recurring theme in a four-match winless run. Earlier wins in two straight hinted at resilience, but their 21 points from 23 games and one-place cushion above Heidenheim underscore their peril. The reverse fixture’s 2-1 loss to Dortmund saw them competitive—two big chances created—but undone by Guirassy’s 83rd-minute strike, a microcosm of their season: effort without reward. Injuries compound their plight, with Karol Mets, Manolis Saliakas, and Sascha Burchert out, alongside Robert Wagner, James Sands, Morgan Guilavogui, and Simon Zoller, leaving Elias Saad, Johannes Eggestein, and Noah Weisshaupt to shoulder an attack averaging 0.91 goals against a BVB defense tightening under Kovac.
Dortmund’s rampant Union display—6-0, nine big chances, five xG—heralded Kovac’s Bundesliga breakthrough, their 24 shots (20 inside the box) dwarfing St Pauli’s output and signaling a shift after scoring just six in their prior five. With 32 points, BVB’s 10th place masks a season of nine losses, yet their six-point gap to fifth keeps Europe in sight. The 2-1 win over St Pauli in October, driven by seven big chances and Guirassy’s late heroics, offers a blueprint, and their two wins in three away games suggest road resilience despite four losses in six. Injuries are lighter—Felix Nmecha and Julian Brandt out—but Marcel Sabitzer and Pascal Gross, steady against Union, should anchor midfield, while Guirassy, flanked by Karim Adeyemi and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, could feast on St Pauli’s 1.65 goals conceded per game. Giovanni Reyna’s potential behind the striker adds flair to a side averaging 1.74 goals, a stark contrast to St Pauli’s 0.91, setting BVB up to exploit the hosts’ three-game losing streak and third straight shutout.
St Pauli’s injury crisis cripples their chances against Dortmund, with centre-backs Mets and Saliakas, goalkeeper Burchert, and midfielders Wagner, Sands, Guilavogui, and Zoller sidelined, forcing Nikola Vasilj in goal behind David Nemeth, Hauke Wahl, and Siebe Van der Heyden, with Jackson Irvine and Eric Smith in a double pivot. Up top, Saad, Eggestein, and Weisshaupt must reverse a three-game goalless run against a BVB defense conceding 1.39 per game but fresh off a clean sheet. Their 21 goals in 23 matches (0.91 average) face Dortmund’s 40 (1.74), and their two home wins in 11 pale against BVB’s two in three away. The 2-0 Mainz loss—two big chances missed—mirrors their 2-1 defeat to Dortmund, where wastefulness cost them. BVB’s 6-0 Union rout, with Guirassy’s form and Kovac’s first win, contrasts St Pauli’s three losses in three and four without a win, tilting this Millerntor clash heavily toward the visitors chasing Europe.
Saturday’s Millerntor-Stadion showdown pits Dortmund’s European ambitions—32 points, 10th, six behind fifth—against St Pauli’s survival fight—21 points, 15th, six above 16th—with BVB’s 6-0 Union thrashing (nine big chances, five xG) clashing with St Pauli’s 2-0 Mainz flop (three games scoreless). Dortmund’s 2-1 October win, Guirassy’s late strike from seven big chances, and two wins in three away games meet St Pauli’s two home wins in 11 and three straight losses. BVB’s 1.74 goals per game and 1.39 conceded dwarf St Pauli’s 0.91 and 1.65, while injuries—Nmecha and Brandt versus St Pauli’s seven absentees—favor Dortmund’s depth. Guirassy, Adeyemi, Bynoe-Gittens, and Reyna should overwhelm a defense leaking goals, as St Pauli’s Saad, Eggestein, and Weisshaupt flounder. Kovac’s men, post-Union, eye a late European surge, while Blessin’s Kiezkicker, winless in four, face a BVB side poised to widen the gap with a likely 3-0 rout, reflecting their form disparity.
