Sweden Vs Estonia

Sweden will aim to bolster their UEFA Nations League C promotion push when they host Estonia at the Strawberry Arena in Solna this Sunday evening. Fresh off an impressive away win against Azerbaijan, Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side is eager to maintain momentum. Meanwhile, Estonia will arrive in Sweden licking their wounds from a narrow home defeat to Euro 2024 dark horse Slovakia. As both teams prepare for what promises to be a crucial fixture in their respective campaigns, the stakes couldn't be higher.

Sweden’s Journey Under Jon Dahl Tomasson

The arrival of Jon Dahl Tomasson as Sweden’s head coach has heralded a new chapter for the Blagult. The former Denmark international took charge of the national team in early 2024, and despite a shaky start—losing three of his first four friendly matches—Tomasson earned his first competitive victory in style last Thursday night. A 3-1 triumph over Azerbaijan in Baku marked the beginning of Sweden’s 2024-25 Nations League campaign and offered a glimpse of the potential the team has under his leadership.

Sweden’s relegation to League C last season was a bitter pill to swallow for a nation accustomed to competing at higher levels. But with talents like Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres leading the charge, there’s hope that this campaign will be different. The attacking duo was instrumental in the win against Azerbaijan, with Isak netting twice and Gyokeres also finding the back of the net. Their performances highlight Sweden’s potential to outshine many of their League C counterparts.

Despite the convincing scoreline in Baku, Sweden's journey wasn't entirely smooth. The Blagult took time to settle into the game, with Azerbaijan threatening to take the lead before halftime. Stoke City goalkeeper Viktor Johansson, who has been a standout performer in the English Championship, played a crucial role in keeping the hosts at bay, saving a penalty from Ramil Sheydaev. Johansson’s heroics preserved Sweden's advantage and allowed the team to gradually gain control of the match.

Learning from Recent Mistakes

Sunday's fixture will be Sweden's first home game in the Nations League since their disappointing 3-0 loss to Serbia on June 8 at Friends Arena. That match served as a reality check for the team, with Serbia—one of Euro 2024’s most formidable contenders—dominating through goals from Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Aleksandar Mitrovic, and Dusan Tadic. For Tomasson, the key lesson from that defeat is ensuring his side avoids complacency when playing in front of their home fans.

Sweden’s record at home, especially in competitive fixtures, has been less than ideal in recent years, and Tomasson will be eager to reverse that trend. The Blagult haven’t won a home Nations League match since 2020, a statistic that will weigh heavily on the team as they prepare to face Estonia.

In addition to their recent competitive struggles, Sweden's inconsistency in friendly matches earlier in the year raised questions about the team's ability to perform under pressure. Although Tomasson was not yet at the helm for those matches, including a 2-1 friendly win over Estonia in January, he is aware of the importance of using every fixture—competitive or otherwise—to build cohesion and momentum.

Estonia's Uphill Battle

For Estonia, the task ahead is daunting. After suffering relegation from League B in the previous Nations League campaign, the Blueshirts now find themselves in a difficult position in League C. They began their current campaign with a home defeat to Slovakia, a team that impressed during Euro 2024. Estonia struggled to make an impact in that game, managing just 0.16 expected goals and only 39% possession. Slovakian winger Tomas Suslov, who plies his trade at Hellas Verona in Italy, scored the decisive goal to sink Estonia’s hopes of getting off to a positive start.

Jurgen Henn, Estonia’s relatively new head coach, has the unenviable task of steering the national team through a challenging Nations League group. Henn, who previously enjoyed a successful spell in charge of Flora Tallinn, took over the national team earlier this year and has already faced several tough fixtures, including a humbling 5-1 loss to Poland in the Euro 2024 playoff semi-final. That defeat in March highlighted the gap between Estonia and Europe’s elite teams and raised questions about their ability to compete at a higher level.

However, Henn remains optimistic. At just 39 years old, he represents a new generation of Estonian coaches with fresh ideas and a modern approach to the game. His primary goal is to stabilize Estonia in League C, but that will require significant improvement, particularly in attack. Estonia has struggled to create chances in recent matches, and with their top striker Rauno Sappinen sidelined due to injury, finding the back of the net has become an even bigger challenge.

Estonia's Recent Struggles

Estonia’s recent form doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into their clash with Sweden. The defeat to Slovakia on Thursday marked their fourth consecutive loss in competitive fixtures, and the team has failed to score in three of those games. Their last away match, a 5-1 drubbing at the hands of Poland in the Euro 2024 playoffs, exposed weaknesses in both defense and attack. Estonia's defenders struggled to cope with Poland’s relentless pressure, while their forwards were largely ineffective against a well-organized Polish backline.

The absence of key players, including Sappinen, has severely hampered Estonia’s ability to compete at this level. Without their leading goal scorer, the Blueshirts have been forced to rely on less experienced players, many of whom are still finding their feet on the international stage. This lack of depth has been a major issue for Estonia in recent years, and it’s something Henn will need to address if his side is to have any hope of avoiding another relegation.

In terms of tactics, Henn has experimented with different formations and lineups since taking charge, but results have been mixed. Against Slovakia, Estonia set up in a 4-4-2 formation, with a focus on keeping things tight at the back and hitting on the counterattack. However, this approach failed to yield results, as Slovakia dominated possession and created the better chances. Estonia will need to be more adventurous against Sweden if they are to have any chance of securing a positive result.

The Head-to-Head Record

When it comes to head-to-head encounters, Sweden has the upper hand. The Blagult have won three of their last four meetings with Estonia, including a 2-1 friendly victory in January. That match, played under the temporary stewardship of Sweden’s Under-21 coach Daniel Backstrom, saw Sebastian Nanasi and Isaac Kiese Thelin score the goals that secured a narrow win for the hosts. Although the stakes were lower in that friendly, it gave Sweden a psychological edge heading into Sunday’s encounter.

For Estonia, their only recent victory over Sweden came in a friendly back in 2014, when they secured a 1-0 win in Stockholm. However, that result is now a distant memory, and Estonia will need to produce something special if they are to replicate that success this time around.

Key Players to Watch

All eyes will be on Sweden’s star attackers Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres. Both players have been in excellent form for their respective clubs and have carried that momentum into the national team. Isak, who plays for Newcastle United in the Premier League, has developed into one of Europe’s most exciting young forwards. His pace, dribbling ability, and clinical finishing make him a constant threat in front of goal. Gyokeres, on the other hand, has been a revelation for Sporting Lisbon, where he continues to impress with his strength, technique, and eye for goal.

For Estonia, much of their attacking play will go through midfielder Konstantin Vassiljev. The 39-year-old veteran is the team’s most experienced player and remains their creative fulcrum. His vision, passing ability, and dead-ball expertise will be crucial if Estonia are to unlock the Swedish defense. However, with limited options in attack, Vassiljev will need his teammates to step up and share the creative burden.

Predictions and Expectations

Sweden enters this match as the clear favorite, and anything less than a convincing victory would be considered a disappointment for Tomasson’s men. The Blagult’s superior attacking options, home advantage, and recent form suggest they should have little trouble dispatching an out-of-sorts Estonia side.

That being said, Estonia will be determined to put up a fight. Henn’s side may lack the firepower to compete with Sweden, but they are well-organized and capable of frustrating opponents. If they can keep things tight at the back and take their chances on the counterattack, they might be able to cause Sweden some problems.

Ultimately, however, the quality of players like Isak and Gyokeres is likely to prove too much for Estonia to handle. Sweden should have enough to secure a comfortable win and continue their push for promotion from League C.