Ukraine vs. Belgium | Nations League | Playoffs A/B | 1st Leg | Pre Match
Ukraine vs. Belgium
On Thursday night, the neutral venue of Murcia, Spain, will bear witness to an intriguing UEFA Nations League playoff clash as Ukraine take on Belgium in the first leg of their two-game showdown, a fixture laden with implications for both teams’ futures in the competition’s hierarchy. Ukraine, displaced from their homeland due to the ongoing war with Russia, have been forced to stage their “home” matches abroad, and their resilience in clinching second place in Group B1 has earned them this shot at promotion to League A. Belgium, meanwhile, arrive as the Red Devils, a nickname synonymous with their golden generation, but their third-place finish in Group A2 has left them teetering on the brink of an unprecedented relegation to League B—a fate they are desperate to avoid under new manager Rudi Garcia. The stakes couldn’t be higher: Ukraine are two victories away from returning to the top tier after years in League B, while Belgium must arrest a alarming slide that has seen them win just once in their last six Nations League outings. With their only prior meeting—a tense goalless draw at Euro 2024—still fresh in the memory, both sides will be eager to seize the initiative in Murcia, setting the stage for a tactical battle that could hinge on fine margins as they vie for supremacy in this opening leg.
Ukraine’s journey to this playoff has been a testament to their grit and determination, qualities forged in the crucible of adversity both on and off the pitch. Relegated from League A in the 2020-21 Nations League, the Blue and Yellow have spent the past two campaigns in League B, steadily rebuilding their reputation and now stand on the cusp of a return to the elite level. Their group stage campaign in Group B1 yielded eight points from six matches (W2 D2 L2), a haul that saw them edge out Georgia and Albania by a single point to secure second place. After a shaky start that included back-to-back defeats, Ukraine rallied impressively, finishing the league phase with a four-game unbeaten run that showcased their growing cohesion and attacking threat. The highlight was a 2-1 away victory over Albania on matchday six, sealed by goals from Arsenal’s Oleksandr Zinchenko and veteran striker Roman Yaremchuk, a result that underscored their ability to grind out wins under pressure. Since their last encounter with Belgium—a frustrating 0-0 draw at Euro 2024 that eliminated them from the tournament due to a worse goal difference in a tightly contested group—Ukraine have found the net in all six of their subsequent matches, though their defense has been less convincing, managing just one clean sheet in that span. Facing Belgium in Murcia, a neutral but unfamiliar setting, they’ll need to balance that attacking momentum with greater solidity at the back to take a lead into the second leg and keep their promotion dreams alive.
Belgium, by contrast, enter this tie in a state of flux, their once-mighty reputation tarnished by a string of underwhelming performances that have prompted a managerial change and a reckoning within the squad. After a last-16 exit at Euro 2024 under Domenico Tedesco—where they fell to France in a tight contest—the Red Devils stumbled through their Nations League campaign, finishing third in Group A2 with a paltry four points from six matches (W1 D1 L4). Tedesco’s tenure ended in the wake of that dismal run, and Rudi Garcia, sacked by Napoli in November 2023, has been tasked with reviving a team that narrowly avoided automatic relegation, finishing just above Israel on head-to-head goal difference. Their campaign began promisingly with a win over Israel, but it quickly unraveled—home and away losses to France bookended a 1-1 draw with Italy, and consecutive 1-0 defeats in their final two matches exposed a side lacking ideas and resilience. Garcia’s appointment marks the start of a new era, but his first challenge is a daunting one: preventing Belgium from dropping to League B for the first time in their history, a fate that would mark a stunning fall for a nation ranked among the world’s best not long ago. Their recent tendency to concede first—doing so in each of their last five matches—adds urgency to their mission in Murcia, where a fast start could set the tone for a redemption arc under their new boss.
Personnel challenges further complicate the preparations for both teams, with injuries and absences forcing adjustments that could shape the outcome of this first leg. For Ukraine, the loss of Plymouth Argyle defender Maksym Talovierov to a knee injury is a blow, as he’s returned to England, thinning their defensive options. More significantly, Chelsea winger Mykhaylo Mudryk, a regular starter in their last five matches, is unavailable, suspended from football after testing positive for the banned substance meldonium late last year—a setback that deprives Ukraine of his pace and creativity on the flanks. In attack, Roma’s Artem Dovbyk is likely to get the nod over Yaremchuk, buoyed by his impressive form in Serie A, where he’s scored five goals in his last eight games, offering a potent threat that could exploit Belgium’s shaky backline. The Blue and Yellow will need Dovbyk’s clinical edge to maintain their scoring streak, especially against a Belgian side that, despite its struggles, retains quality in key areas. With their home advantage neutralized by the war, Ukraine’s adaptability and spirit will be tested in Murcia, but their recent unbeaten run suggests they have the resolve to trouble a Red Devils outfit in transition, provided they can shore up a defense that has been breached too often of late.
Belgium’s squad, meanwhile, is a mix of returning stars and fresh faces, reflecting Garcia’s intent to blend experience with renewal as he seeks to steady the ship. The headline news is the return of Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, who ends a self-imposed exile from international duty that began in June 2023 after a falling-out with Tedesco. His presence between the posts could be a game-changer, bringing world-class shot-stopping to a team that has lacked stability at the back, though it comes at the cost of Koen Casteels, who has made himself unavailable in protest of Courtois’s recall. Garcia has also bolstered his options with Burnley’s Ameen Al-Dakhil and Crystal Palace’s Michy Batshuayi, adding depth to a squad hit by the absences of Arthur Theate and Malick Fofana through injury. While Belgium’s golden generation—epitomized by the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard—has largely faded, their current roster still boasts talent capable of turning matches, and Garcia will demand a response after their dismal group stage. The Red Devils’ vulnerability to early concessions is a glaring weakness Ukraine could exploit, but Courtois’s return and Batshuayi’s goal-scoring instincts offer hope of a turnaround, provided they can shake off the lethargy that has plagued them in recent months and impose themselves on a Ukrainian side buoyed by momentum.
In essence, this Murcia clash promises to be a compelling encounter between two teams at crossroads, each driven by distinct motivations yet united by the high stakes of the Nations League playoffs. Ukraine, exiled from their homeland, bring a four-game unbeaten streak and a hunger to reclaim their place in League A, their attacking consistency a weapon that could punish Belgium’s fragility if Dovbyk and company seize their chances. Belgium, under Garcia’s nascent leadership, face a fight to preserve their top-tier status, their pride wounded by a torrid run that only Courtois’s return and a renewed focus might reverse. The neutral setting levels the playing field, but Ukraine’s recent form contrasts sharply with Belgium’s struggles, setting up a tactical duel where resilience meets reinvention. With Mudryk’s suspension and Courtois’s comeback shaping the lineups, individual battles—Dovbyk versus Belgium’s defense, Courtois versus Ukraine’s forwards—could prove decisive. As the first leg unfolds on Thursday, the outcome remains uncertain, with the second leg looming as the ultimate arbiter of whether Ukraine rise or Belgium avoid a historic fall, making every moment in Murcia a step toward destiny.
