Everton vs Manchester United | Premier League | Pre Match

When David Moyes replaced Sean Dyche last month, few would have predicted that, within the space of six Premier League matches, Everton would be above Manchester United in the table. Such a turnaround seemed improbable given the struggles the Toffees had endured under Dyche, coupled with the historical weight and financial muscle of United, who, despite their issues, always seemed to find a way to stay ahead. Yet, as things stand heading into Saturday’s contest at Goodison Park, Everton have accumulated 30 points, one more than the Red Devils, who languish in 15th place, as Ruben Amorim continues to wrestle with the challenges of stabilizing his team. It is a stark and sobering reality for United, a club that has long prided itself on its dominance, but now finds itself looking over its shoulder at teams they would traditionally expect to be miles ahead of.

United’s alarming form this season has only exacerbated concerns among their fanbase. They have suffered 12 defeats in their 25 Premier League games thus far (W8 D5), marking their highest number of losses at this stage of a league campaign since the infamous 1973-74 season, a campaign that ended in relegation from the top flight. The stark parallels to that disastrous season have left supporters anxious and questioning whether the club is heading in the right direction under Amorim. The lack of consistency, tactical disarray, and failure to produce results against both top-tier and lower-ranked teams have all contributed to the growing crisis at Old Trafford. Even more worrying is the fact that United have lost eight of their last 12 Premier League games (W3 D1), highlighting a freefall that has seen them collect just 10 points in that span. To put that into context, since December 4th, when this poor run began with a defeat to Arsenal, only Leicester City (nine losses) and Southampton (10 losses) have performed worse in terms of overall defeats in the league. The comparison to teams struggling for survival is damning for a club of United's stature and serves as an indictment of their ongoing struggles.

Adding to their woes is United's inability to find the back of the net with any degree of regularity. They have failed to score in 10 different Premier League matches this season, a statistic that only Everton (12) surpasses. This highlights just how ineffective their attacking unit has been, with a lack of cohesion, confidence, and quality chances contributing to their goal droughts. It is a problem United have not encountered this frequently in a single campaign since the 2004-05 and 2015-16 seasons, both of which were characterized by inconsistent performances and managerial uncertainty. Furthermore, their shot conversion rate stands at a dismal 8.4%, which is only marginally better than bottom-placed Southampton (7.9%). For context, this is United's lowest shot conversion rate in a single season since 2004-05, when they registered an 8.2% conversion rate. Given the club's reliance on marquee attacking talents such as Marcus Rashford, Rasmus Højlund, and Bruno Fernandes, their inability to convert chances into goals has only deepened the frustration of their supporters.

While United have continued to flounder, Everton have been on an upward trajectory under Moyes. Since his arrival, the Toffees have accumulated 13 points in the league, just one shy of Amorim's overall tally of 14 since taking over at United. Everton’s resurgence has seen them become one of the form teams in the league, winning four of their last five Premier League matches (D1). To put this into perspective, they had won just three of their first 20 league games this season (W3 D8 L9), an indication of just how transformative Moyes' appointment has been. The fact that Everton are now facing United while sitting above them in the league table this late into a season is a rare occurrence; the last time this happened was during the 2013-14 campaign, when Everton were fifth and United were seventh after 35 games. Interestingly, Everton won that match, and just two days later, Moyes was dismissed from his managerial role at Old Trafford, bringing an end to a short-lived and tumultuous reign that failed to meet the expectations set by Sir Alex Ferguson.

Moyes' return to Goodison Park has been nothing short of a revelation, as he has immediately instilled discipline, tactical clarity, and an improved attacking output in the squad. Everton have managed to score at least twice in each of their last three Premier League home matches, a feat they last accomplished between October and December 2017, when they scored multiple goals in five consecutive home fixtures. The Toffees' overall attacking output has also seen a sharp increase, with 12 goals scored in their last five league games, a stark contrast to the meager 11 goals they managed across their previous 16 matches. This level of efficiency and confidence in the final third has been key to their resurgence and has given fans reason to believe in a more comfortable end to the season.

Even more impressive is the fact that Everton's recent success has come despite missing several key players. The likes of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Orel Mangala, Dwight McNeil, Armando Broja, Youssef Chermiti, Seamus Coleman, and Nathan Patterson have all been sidelined due to injuries, while Abdoulaye Doucouré was absent during their recent victory over Crystal Palace due to suspension. This shortage of personnel could have spelled disaster for a team fighting to escape the relegation battle, but Moyes has managed to rally his available squad members and extract impressive performances from those who have stepped up in the absence of their more established teammates.

One such player who has seized his opportunity is Beto. The forward has found his best form under Moyes, scoring four goals in his last three Premier League matches—a tally that equals his total from his previous 44 league appearances. His transformation has been remarkable, with his current scoring rate of a goal every 88 minutes and a shot conversion rate of 40% under Moyes representing a dramatic improvement from the 290 minutes per goal and 7.4% conversion rate he had under Dyche. His resurgence has injected much-needed firepower into Everton's attack and given them a reliable outlet upfront. Should he maintain his current form, he could become the first Everton player since Richarlison in March 2021 to score in four consecutive league matches. Furthermore, the last Everton player to achieve this feat under Moyes was Mikel Arteta back in April 2010, highlighting just how significant Beto's impact has been since the managerial change.

The question remains whether this form is sustainable in the long run. However, the Opta supercomputer suggests that Everton are now all but safe from relegation, shifting their ambitions from survival to potentially securing a respectable mid-table finish. Moyes will undoubtedly aim to keep his squad focused on continuing their upward trajectory and ensuring that complacency does not set in. Given his track record of making teams difficult to beat and instilling a strong work ethic, Everton fans have every reason to be optimistic about the remainder of the campaign.

Moyes has also enjoyed personal success against Manchester United in recent times. He has won his last two Premier League home matches against the Red Devils, securing 1-0 and 2-0 victories with West Ham in May and December 2023, respectively. Additionally, his last home league game in charge of Everton against United also ended in victory, with the Toffees claiming a 1-0 win in August 2012. These results will certainly bolster Everton's confidence heading into Saturday's fixture, knowing they have a manager who has demonstrated an ability to get the better of United in recent encounters.

That being said, United do boast a strong overall record against Everton and will take encouragement from their dominant 4-0 victory in the reverse fixture back in December, which also marked Amorim's first league win in charge of the club. Whether United can replicate that performance or if Everton can continue their resurgence under Moyes remains to be seen, but one thing is certain—the stakes are higher than ever for both teams as they prepare for a crucial showdown at Goodison Park.