Holstein Kiel vs. Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | Pre Match

Bayer Leverkusen must win in order to keep their slim Bundesliga title hopes alive when they travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel on Saturday. With the season heading toward its final stretch, every point is crucial for Xabi Alonso’s men as they look to close the eight-point gap between themselves and league leaders Bayern Munich. However, standing in their way is a struggling Holstein Kiel side, who find themselves at the foot of the Bundesliga table, fighting for survival. Despite the difference in quality between the two teams, Leverkusen will be well aware that no game in Germany’s top flight is easy, particularly when playing away from home.

The hosts, Holstein Kiel, currently languish in 18th place with just 13 points, having endured a miserable campaign that has seen them struggle to string together positive results. Their most recent outing ended in a disappointing 3-1 defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt on February 16, a game in which they were largely outplayed. Despite managing to score a consolation goal in the 73rd minute, they were second-best throughout, conceding three times and facing four big chances, while Frankfurt registered an expected goals (xG) tally of nearly 2.5. This latest loss further underlined their defensive frailties, a theme that has been consistent all season.

Holstein Kiel’s defensive issues are particularly alarming, as they have conceded two or more goals in 12 of their last 13 Bundesliga matches. Over their previous five fixtures alone, they have shipped a concerning 14 goals, making them one of the most porous teams in the division. However, despite their dire position, all hope is not lost for Marcel Rapp’s men. They remain just one point behind 16th-placed Heidenheim, who currently occupy the relegation playoff spot. Given that 15th-placed Hoffenheim have a more comfortable cushion of 21 points, Kiel’s most realistic shot at avoiding automatic relegation is to fight for a playoff position and attempt to retain their Bundesliga status via a two-legged tie against a 2. Bundesliga side.

Rapp’s side have struggled for consistency throughout the season, failing to secure a single win in their last five league outings, drawing two and losing three. In total, they have suffered 15 defeats across 22 Bundesliga matches, an indication of their struggles at both ends of the pitch. However, they do have one positive statistic in their favor when it comes to home performances. In their last four games at Holstein-Stadion, they have managed to secure two wins and one draw, scoring 12 goals in the process while conceding eight. Although their defensive vulnerabilities persist, their ability to find the back of the net at home suggests they could pose a challenge to Leverkusen if given the opportunity.

Leverkusen, on the other hand, come into Saturday’s clash with a point to prove after being held to a frustrating 0-0 draw against Bayern Munich in their last Bundesliga outing. Alonso’s side will be particularly aggrieved by the result, as they dominated the encounter but failed to convert their chances. They missed five big chances, struck the woodwork twice, and restricted Bayern to just two shots in the entire game. Despite their failure to secure three points, the performance reinforced their credentials as serious title challengers.

However, Leverkusen’s inability to secure wins in recent games has raised some concerns. The stalemate against Bayern was their second consecutive 0-0 draw, and while they had scored six times in their two matches before that, it was an uncharacteristic dry spell for an otherwise potent attacking unit. Prior to those back-to-back goalless draws, Leverkusen had found the net in 17 consecutive matches, demonstrating their attacking prowess. If they are to keep their title hopes alive, they must rediscover their clinical edge against Holstein Kiel.

The visitors cannot afford to slip up in this fixture, as they currently sit second in the standings with 47 points, trailing Bayern by eight with just 12 games remaining. There is a possibility that Bayern could drop points on Sunday when they face third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, but Leverkusen must first take care of their own business. A win against the league’s bottom side is imperative, especially considering the unpredictability of results at the top of the table.

Leverkusen will also be mindful of their last encounter with Holstein Kiel, which ended in a surprising 2-2 draw on October 5. In that game, Leverkusen raced to a 2-0 lead within the opening eight minutes but failed to see the game out, allowing Kiel to mount a comeback. That result serves as a reminder that complacency could prove costly, even against teams struggling at the bottom of the table.

In terms of form, Leverkusen have encountered some difficulties in recent weeks. They have failed to win four of their last seven Bundesliga matches, drawing three and losing one. However, they have still managed to secure nine victories in their last 12 games, showcasing their overall quality. One area of concern for Alonso’s men is their away record, as they have failed to win any of their last three Bundesliga matches on the road, drawing two and losing one. Prior to that run, however, they had won four consecutive away games while keeping three clean sheets, so they will be looking to regain that strong form.

Holstein Kiel’s chances of springing an upset are further complicated by several key injury concerns. The Storks will be without a number of defensive options, including Patrick Erras, Colin Kleine-Beckel, Carl Johansson, Ivan Nekic, and John Tolkin. These absences mean that Marcel Rapp will likely have to rely on a makeshift backline consisting of Timo Becker, David Zec, and Marco Komenda, with Marko Ivezic and Lewis Holtby providing support. The midfield trio could feature Armin Gigovic, Nicolai Remberg, and Magnus Knudsen, especially since Finn Porath is not expected to be part of the matchday squad.

Further up the pitch, Holstein Kiel’s attacking options are also limited, with Alexander Bernhardsson, Benedikt Pichler, and Steven Skrzybski all unavailable. As a result, Phil Harres and Shuto Machino are the most likely candidates to lead the line in attack. Given their struggles in both defense and attack, Kiel will need to deliver an inspired performance to take anything from this match.

Leverkusen, meanwhile, have their own injury concerns. Defender Jeanuel Belocian has been ruled out for the rest of the season, while attacker Martin Terrier will also be sidelined. Despite these setbacks, Alonso still has plenty of quality at his disposal. Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba, and Piero Hincapie are expected to form a solid back three, with Granit Xhaka and Exequiel Palacios operating as a double pivot in midfield. The attack will be spearheaded by Florian Wirtz, who has been one of Leverkusen’s standout performers this season. He is expected to be supported by Nathan Tella and Victor Boniface, two players capable of causing havoc for opposition defenses.

With so much at stake for both teams, this promises to be an intriguing battle. While Leverkusen will be determined to keep their title hopes alive, Holstein Kiel are fighting for their survival, which could make for an intense contest. However, given the gulf in quality between the two sides and Leverkusen’s superior attacking options, the visitors will be confident of securing a crucial three points as they continue their pursuit of Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga table.