Leipzig vs Augsburg

RB Leipzig will welcome Augsburg to Red Bull Arena this Saturday for the fifth round of Bundesliga action. Leipzig, currently sitting in fifth place, have amassed eight points from their opening four matches and remain unbeaten. On the other hand, Augsburg have experienced a far more turbulent start to the season, finding themselves in 12th place with just four points from their first four fixtures. This clash presents both teams with an opportunity to either extend or reverse their fortunes as the Bundesliga season begins to gather momentum.

Leipzig’s Campaign So Far: Strong Start, Recent Stumbles

RB Leipzig entered the 2024-25 Bundesliga season with high expectations, given their strong squad and the tactical prowess of head coach Marco Rose. The season began on a high note with back-to-back wins in their first two league games, which included an impressive victory over Bayer Leverkusen on August 31. In that match, Leipzig ended Leverkusen's record 35-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga, sealing a thrilling 3-2 win. The performance against Leverkusen highlighted Leipzig's attacking flair and defensive solidity, raising hopes that the club might push for a strong league position this season.

However, since that triumph, Leipzig's domestic form has dipped slightly, with the team recording two consecutive 0-0 draws in the league. The first of these draws came against Wolfsburg, a team that Leipzig were widely expected to beat given their superior form. Despite dominating possession and creating several scoring opportunities, Die Roten Bullen struggled to break down a resolute Wolfsburg defense, with both teams ultimately sharing the spoils.

The most recent draw came on September 22 against newly-promoted St. Pauli. This result was particularly disappointing for Leipzig, not just because of the dropped points, but also because St. Pauli appeared to be the more dangerous team on the day. St. Pauli registered 15 shots from inside the penalty area compared to Leipzig's eight, highlighting Leipzig's inability to convert their possession into meaningful attacking chances. While Leipzig's defense held firm, the lack of cutting edge up front will be a concern for Rose as his team looks to bounce back from two underwhelming results.

Adding to their recent struggles, Leipzig also suffered a disappointing defeat in their opening Champions League group stage match. They traveled to Spain to face Atletico Madrid and were minutes away from securing a valuable point before Atletico’s Jose Gimenez struck a dramatic 90th-minute winner to hand Leipzig a 2-1 loss. This defeat, combined with their lack of goals in the Bundesliga, has raised questions about Leipzig's form and their ability to compete at the highest level this season.

Offensive Struggles: Leipzig’s Key Concern

One of the main issues for RB Leipzig in recent matches has been their inability to convert possession and territorial dominance into goals. In fact, Leipzig currently rank 14th in the Bundesliga for expected goals (xG) created, 14th for shots on target per match, and 15th for big chances created. These worrying statistics indicate that, despite controlling games, Leipzig are not creating enough clear-cut opportunities to score.

Marco Rose has acknowledged these struggles in his recent press conferences. The Leipzig head coach noted that his side has failed to assert themselves in games and that they need to find more fluidity and purpose in their attacking play. However, Rose was confident that these issues can be resolved, and he reassured fans that the team's potential remains intact. With talented forwards like Benjamin Sesko and Dani Olmo in their ranks, Leipzig certainly have the personnel to turn things around, but they will need to find their rhythm in front of goal soon.

While Leipzig’s attacking play has come under scrutiny, their home form at Red Bull Arena remains a source of optimism. Leipzig have been a formidable force on their own turf, with the team winning 16, drawing five, and losing just two of their last 23 Bundesliga matches at home. However, it is worth noting that Leipzig have drawn three of their last six home league games, suggesting that while they are hard to beat, they have occasionally struggled to secure all three points. Their defensive solidity remains a strength, as they have conceded just twice in these six home games.

Augsburg’s Season So Far: Defensive Frailties and Mixed Results

Augsburg enter Saturday’s contest in a far less comfortable position than their hosts. Currently 12th in the table with only four points, Augsburg have endured an inconsistent start to the season. In their most recent Bundesliga match, Augsburg suffered a 3-2 defeat to Mainz 05, a result that highlighted both their attacking capabilities and their defensive vulnerabilities.

In that match, Mainz raced to a 2-0 lead within the first 15 minutes, putting Augsburg on the back foot early on. However, Augsburg responded well and managed to pull a goal back, aided by the fact that Mainz were reduced to 10 men in the 35th minute. With a numerical advantage for the rest of the first half, Augsburg pushed for an equalizer, but their inability to capitalize on Mainz's defensive disarray proved costly. Instead of leveling the game, Augsburg conceded a third goal shortly after halftime, effectively sealing their fate despite scoring a second goal late on.

Defensively, Augsburg have struggled mightily this season, having conceded 10 goals in their first four league matches. This figure places them among the worst defensive teams in the Bundesliga, and Augsburg coach Jess Thorup has been vocal about the need for collective defensive improvement. Rather than singling out individual defenders, Thorup has emphasized that the entire team needs to defend better, pressing as a unit and maintaining their shape under pressure.

Despite these defensive frailties, Augsburg have shown some promise in attack. The team has scored seven goals so far this season and ranks seventh in the Bundesliga for expected goals (xG) created and fifth for big chances created. These statistics suggest that Augsburg have the ability to cause problems for their opponents, but their finishing has been inconsistent. In fact, Augsburg have missed the fourth-most big chances in the league, a frustrating statistic that has cost them valuable points.

A Tale of Two Teams: Contrasting Fortunes

As Leipzig and Augsburg prepare to face each other, it is clear that both teams will need to address specific areas of their game if they are to claim victory on Saturday. For Leipzig, the key will be rediscovering their attacking spark. With players like Sesko, Olmo, and Timo Werner leading the line, Leipzig have the talent to score goals, but they must start converting their possession and chances into tangible results. Given their strong home form and defensive stability, Leipzig will likely aim to control the game from the outset, dominating possession and probing Augsburg’s leaky defense.

For Augsburg, the challenge will be twofold. Firstly, they must shore up their defense and prevent Leipzig from running riot in the final third. While Thorup has acknowledged the team’s defensive issues, the key will be implementing tactical changes that can withstand Leipzig’s relentless pressure. Secondly, Augsburg must be more clinical in front of goal. They have created enough chances to win matches, but their profligacy has been a major hindrance. If they can take their chances and put Leipzig on the back foot, Augsburg could spring a surprise at Red Bull Arena.

Conclusion: A Vital Match for Both Sides

Saturday's clash between RB Leipzig and Augsburg promises to be an intriguing encounter, with both teams needing a win for different reasons. Leipzig will be keen to get back to winning ways after consecutive draws and will hope to make the most of their home advantage. Augsburg, meanwhile, will be desperate to address their defensive issues and secure a result that can kickstart their season.

For Leipzig, victory would keep them within touching distance of the Bundesliga’s top spots and send a message that their early-season struggles were merely a blip. For Augsburg, a win would be a morale-boosting result and could provide the platform for a more consistent run of form. Both teams have much to play for, and the outcome of this match could shape the direction of their respective seasons.

Expect Leipzig to dominate possession and push Augsburg onto the back foot, but Augsburg's ability to counterattack and exploit defensive lapses could make this a closer contest than the league standings suggest.