Liverpool vs. Paris Saint-Germain

Liverpool will welcome Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) to Anfield on Tuesday evening for the second leg of their Champions League last-16 encounter, still relishing the fortune that saw them depart Paris with a narrow 1-0 victory in the first leg. Arne Slot’s squad delivered a resolute defensive display at the Parc des Princes, where a game-changing substitution and an exceptional goalkeeping performance paved the way for their unlikely triumph.

Despite being outplayed for much of the first leg, Liverpool now return to the comforts of their home turf as favourites to emerge victorious within normal time, with most bookmakers offering odds of around 5/4. However, new customers signing up with Parimatch can take advantage of a remarkable 40/1 special on a Liverpool victory, an enticing offer for those yet to open an account with the bookmaker.

As the match at the Parc des Princes unfolded, Paris Saint-Germain relentlessly probed Liverpool’s defence but found themselves repeatedly thwarted by the brilliance of Alisson Becker. The Brazilian shot-stopper produced a masterclass between the posts, denying PSG on nine occasions and preserving Liverpool’s slender advantage. Even when Khvicha Kvaratskhelia managed to find the net, the effort was ruled offside, leaving the Ligue 1 champions frustrated despite their dominance in possession and attempts on goal.

PSG’s profligacy came back to haunt them in the closing stages, as substitute Harvey Elliott emerged as the hero for the visitors. Seizing upon PSG’s inability to capitalize on their opportunities, Elliott delivered a stunning 87th-minute strike, ensuring that Liverpool would return to England with an invaluable away victory. The statistical disparity was staggering—while Luis Enrique’s men registered 27 shots without scoring, Liverpool needed just two attempts to secure the defining moment of the contest.

Historical precedence favors Liverpool following their first-leg success. Over the past two decades, the Reds have navigated their way through all 14 Champions League ties in which they claimed the opening fixture. The last team to overturn such a deficit against Liverpool was Bayer Leverkusen in the 2001-02 campaign, an anomaly in the club’s otherwise impeccable record when drawing first blood in knockout-stage encounters.

However, the Merseyside outfit’s domestic form has been less imperious, as evidenced by their unconvincing performance against Southampton in the Premier League over the weekend. An early defensive lapse allowed Will Smallbone to hand the Saints a shock lead, exposing vulnerabilities in Liverpool’s backline that PSG will undoubtedly look to exploit. But true to their resilient nature, Liverpool mounted a stirring comeback in the second half, as Darwin Nunez restored parity before Mohamed Salah took center stage. The Egyptian talisman not only converted a brace of penalties to complete the turnaround but also cemented his legacy as Liverpool’s third-highest all-time scorer while equaling the record for goal involvements in a 38-game Premier League season.

Saturday’s 3-1 victory over Southampton extended Liverpool’s winning streak across all competitions to four matches. Yet, as was evident in their narrow escape in Paris, their recent displays have left room for improvement. PSG will certainly take encouragement from Liverpool’s occasional defensive lapses, particularly in the first half of games, as they look to produce a comeback of their own under the Anfield lights.

For PSG, the first-leg defeat was a tale as old as time. Despite boasting an abundance of attacking talent and controlling large portions of the match, the Champions League continues to remain an elusive prize for the perennial French champions. Their extravagant investments over the years have yet to yield the ultimate reward, and their latest setback in Paris reinforced the club’s recurring struggles in European competition.

Nevertheless, the Ligue 1 giants have a precedent to draw upon as they seek to turn the tide in the return leg. Just last season, PSG found themselves in a similarly precarious position against Barcelona in the quarter-finals. A 3-2 home defeat in the first leg appeared to spell doom for their ambitions, but they responded emphatically with a stunning 4-1 victory in the reverse fixture in Spain, advancing in spectacular fashion. That remarkable turnaround will serve as motivation when they take the field at Anfield, knowing that a repeat performance could see them snatch qualification from Liverpool’s grasp.

Their confidence will also be buoyed by their resounding 4-1 triumph over Rennes in domestic action over the weekend, a result that served as a much-needed tonic following their European setback. Bradley Barcola and Goncalo Ramos set the tone for PSG’s attacking resurgence before Ousmane Dembele, in the form of his life, added a late brace to take his season’s Ligue 1 goal tally to 20. It was the perfect response to their first-leg shortcomings, and it extended their formidable away winning streak to 13 consecutive matches across all competitions.

PSG’s recent exploits on the road make them a dangerous proposition, having triumphed in their last three Champions League away games against Brest, Stuttgart, and Red Bull Salzburg. However, a historical hurdle looms large: no French team in the past 15 attempts has managed to win an away fixture against English opposition in European competition. The last to do so? PSG themselves, who secured a famous victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford in December 2020.

Whether history repeats itself or Liverpool continue their march towards another quarter-final appearance will hinge on several key factors, none more significant than the performance of Alisson Becker. If the Brazilian shot-stopper replicates his heroics from the first leg, PSG could once again be left ruing their missed chances. However, should Enrique’s men rediscover their clinical edge, an enthralling contest could be in store at Anfield, with the promise of Champions League drama at its finest.