Norway will host already-relegated Kazakhstan in a high-stakes clash on the final matchday of the UEFA Nations League (UNL) on Sunday evening. While the visitors have nothing left to fight for, the hosts stand on the brink of promotion to League A, provided they get a helping hand from Slovenia in their concurrent fixture against Austria.
Norway enters this match buoyed by their emphatic 4-1 victory over Slovenia on Thursday. That result ensured Ståle Solbakken’s side a top-two finish in Group B3, guaranteeing them a measure of success regardless of the outcome in Oslo. However, the ultimate prize—a first-place finish and automatic promotion to League A—is tantalizingly close.
Currently level on points with Austria, Norway’s fate depends not only on their performance but also on the results in Vienna. The two nations share identical points tallies, but Austria holds the edge due to their dominant 5-1 victory over Norway in their head-to-head encounter last month.
Interestingly, the group standings could still take a dramatic turn. If Austria loses to Slovenia and Norway secures victory, a three-way tie on 10 points would see Norway triumph due to their superior head-to-head record against both rivals in such a scenario.
This campaign represents Norway’s third consecutive stint in League B, and promotion to League A would be a monumental achievement. With a talented squad featuring stars like Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, the team’s supporters have every reason to believe that their side can finally take the next step.
Norway’s campaign has been marked by moments of brilliance and bouts of inconsistency. Their dominant display in Slovenia was a statement performance, showcasing their offensive firepower and tactical discipline. Yet, earlier setbacks, including a heavy defeat to Austria and a shock draw with Kazakhstan, have highlighted vulnerabilities.
The inconsistency has not been confined to away fixtures. While Norway has secured wins against both promotion rivals—Austria and Slovenia—at home, their struggles in matches outside Oslo have exposed the need for greater composure and adaptability. This erratic form is a major factor behind their repeated failures to qualify for major international tournaments.
The reverse fixture against Kazakhstan in Almaty typified Norway’s struggles against lower-ranked opposition. In a frustrating 0-0 stalemate, Norway managed just one shot on target, while Kazakhstan’s expected goals (xG) metric was a paltry 0.1. This lackluster performance underscored Norway’s difficulties in breaking down resolute defenses.
Solbakken’s tenure as manager has been polarizing, with many fans questioning his ability to maximize the potential of a golden generation of players. While the upcoming 2026 World Cup qualifiers
For Kazakhstan, the Nations League campaign has been a sobering experience. Following their promotion from League C, the step up in competition has proven too steep for the Hawks. The optimism generated by their matchday one draw with Norway quickly evaporated as they succumbed to a series of heavy defeats.
Relegation back to League C was confirmed well before this final fixture, and the statistics make grim reading. Kazakhstan remains one of only two teams across the entire UNL yet to score a goal—an ignominious distinction shared with Andorra. However, while Andorra has played just two matches, Kazakhstan has endured five outings without finding the net.
This barren run is part of a broader decline for Kazakhstan. Since their victory over San Marino in Euro 2024 qualifying, Stanislav Cherchesov’s side has endured a miserable stretch, losing nine of their last 11 matches in all competitions. Their sole victory in this period came in a friendly against Turkmenistan in March.
Despite these struggles, Kazakhstan’s recent ascent in European football has been commendable. Having started in League D during the inaugural Nations League campaign, the Hawks climbed through the ranks and came agonizingly close to qualifying for Euro 2024. However, their inability to compete consistently at a higher level raises concerns about whether their progress is sustainable.
Norway’s strategy will likely focus on maintaining control of the game and creating opportunities for their attacking talismans. Erling Haaland, who has been in scintillating form for both club and country, will be the focal point of their offense. Supported by the creative genius of Martin Ødegaard in midfield, Norway’s attacking unit has the firepower to trouble any defense.
Defensively, Norway will aim to build on their strong home record. While their away performances have been erratic, they have shown resilience and organization in Oslo. This defensive solidity will be crucial against a Kazakhstan side that has struggled to pose a genuine attacking threat.
For Kazakhstan, the key will be to regain some pride and end their campaign on a positive note. However, their lack of goals and confidence is a significant obstacle. Cherchesov may look to adopt a conservative approach, focusing on frustrating Norway and exploiting any opportunities on the counterattack. The Hawks’ ability to stay compact and organized defensively will be tested against Norway’s relentless pressure.
This match represents the latest chapter in a growing rivalry between Norway and Kazakhstan. While Norway has traditionally been the stronger side, Kazakhstan’s resilience in the reverse fixture demonstrated their potential to disrupt more established teams.
For Norway, the stakes are high. A win would not only keep them in contention for promotion but also serve as a morale booster heading into future competitions. The prospect of competing in League A against Europe’s elite teams is an enticing reward for a nation eager to reclaim its place among football’s powerhouses.
Kazakhstan, on the other hand, will view this match as an opportunity to regroup and assess their progress. While relegation is a setback, the experience gained from competing in League B could prove invaluable in their bid to bounce back stronger.
The atmosphere in Oslo is expected to be electric, with Norwegian fans rallying behind their team in what could be a pivotal moment for the nation’s footballing future. However, the pressure on Solbakken is immense, as expectations continue to rise. A convincing performance and result against Kazakhstan would not only bolster Norway’s promotion bid but also help restore faith in the manager’s vision.
Kazakhstan’s supporters, though fewer in number, will be hoping for a spirited display from their team. While the odds are stacked against them, a strong performance could provide a silver lining in an otherwise challenging campaign.
Norway enters the match as clear favorites, with the quality and momentum to secure a decisive victory. Kazakhstan’s defensive frailties and lack of attacking prowess make it difficult to envision an upset. However, the unpredictability of football ensures that nothing can be taken for granted.
As the final whistle approaches, all eyes will be on Vienna, where Austria’s clash with Slovenia could ultimately decide the fate of Group B3. Regardless of the outcome, Sunday’s match in Oslo promises to be a defining moment in the Nations League journey for both Norway and Kazakhstan.
With Norway on the brink of promotion and Kazakhstan seeking redemption, the stage is set for an intriguing encounter. Will Norway capitalize on their opportunity, or can Kazakhstan produce a shock to derail their hosts’ ambitions? The answer awaits in what promises to be a compelling finale to Group B3.