Pre-Match Analysis: Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart in Niko Kovac’s first match in charge

Borussia Dortmund will look to break their recent struggles against VfB Stuttgart when the two teams clash at the Westfalenstadion in what is shaping up to be a pivotal Bundesliga fixture. The last time Dortmund managed to claim victory over Stuttgart was back in October 2022, when they secured a resounding 5-0 win. That dominant performance included a brace from Jude Bellingham, who has since moved on to Real Madrid, leaving a significant void in the Dortmund midfield. However, since Sebastian Hoeneß took over as Stuttgart's head coach, the balance of power in this fixture has shifted dramatically. Stuttgart have had the upper hand, with a draw followed by four consecutive victories, including an emphatic 5-1 triumph in September of last year.

Dortmund now have a new man at the helm in Niko Kovač, who has been handed the difficult task of restoring BVB to their former glory. The former Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg coach knows the magnitude of the job ahead of him and has openly admitted that Dortmund's issues cannot be solved overnight. It is a project that will require time, patience, and strategic rebuilding. However, time is a luxury Dortmund can scarcely afford, as they are in dire need of three points to remain in the hunt for European qualification.

With six places separating Dortmund from Stuttgart but only three points between them, this encounter is nothing short of a six-pointer. A victory for Dortmund would bring them level with their rivals, providing a crucial morale boost as they head into the final stretch of the season. Conversely, a defeat would see them fall six points behind, significantly hampering their chances of securing a top-four finish. Given the stakes involved, Dortmund fans will be hoping their team can rise to the occasion and deliver a much-needed victory.

The task at hand, however, is far from straightforward. Stuttgart have been one of the Bundesliga’s most impressive sides this season, showcasing an attacking brand of football that has troubled even the best defenses in the league. Their ability to break down opponents with incisive passing, quick transitions, and lethal finishing has been the foundation of their success under Hoeneß. Even though they may be missing key players for this match, Stuttgart will be confident in their ability to continue their strong run of form against Dortmund.

Stuttgart's injury list is a growing concern, with as many as eight players potentially missing the game. Long-term absentees remain sidelined, while several key squad members are facing uncertain availability due to illness and minor injuries. Nick Woltemade, Josha Vagnoman, and Jacob Bruun Larsen are all doubts, having suffered from illness in the lead-up to the fixture. Additionally, Enzo Millot is racing against time to be fit after picking up a knock during Stuttgart’s hard-fought 1-0 victory over Augsburg in the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday. Head coach Sebastian Hoeneß addressed these concerns in his pre-match press conference, stating, “We know about ‘Daxo’ [Zagadou], El Bilal [Touré], Luca Raimund, and Ameen Al-Dakhil. We have three players who are ill in Nick Woltemade, Josha Vagnoman, and Jacob Bruun-Larsen. There’s also a question mark over Enzo Millot.”

Despite these challenges, Stuttgart have proven that they have the squad depth and tactical discipline to adapt to adversity. Their attacking trio of Deniz Undav, Serhou Guirassy, and Chris Führich have been in fine form, and if they can exploit Dortmund's defensive frailties, they could extend their dominance in this fixture. Guirassy, in particular, has been a revelation this season, scoring goals at a remarkable rate and establishing himself as one of the most potent strikers in the Bundesliga. Dortmund's backline will need to be at their best to contain his threat.

For Dortmund, this match represents an opportunity to reset their season under Kovač. Their inconsistency has been a major concern, with defensive lapses and lackluster performances costing them valuable points. If they are to mount a serious push for Champions League qualification, they must find a way to address these issues. Kovač is likely to make tactical adjustments, possibly opting for a more compact defensive setup to counter Stuttgart’s attacking prowess. At the same time, Dortmund will need their attacking stars to step up, with players like Marco Reus, Julian Brandt, and Donyell Malen expected to play crucial roles in breaking down Stuttgart’s resilient defense.

Another key factor in this matchup will be the battle in midfield. Dortmund have struggled to control games in the center of the park, and against a Stuttgart side that thrives on quick ball circulation and high pressing, they will need to impose themselves physically and tactically. The potential return of Emre Can could provide a much-needed boost in this regard, as his experience and defensive acumen will be crucial in shielding the backline and breaking up Stuttgart's attacking moves.

Furthermore, Dortmund's home form has been relatively strong, and they will look to leverage the electric atmosphere of the Westfalenstadion to their advantage. The iconic Yellow Wall has often served as a fortress for BVB, and with the fans behind them, they will be aiming to channel that energy into a commanding performance. A fast start will be essential, as falling behind early against Stuttgart could spell trouble given their ability to control possession and dictate the tempo of the game.

As the Bundesliga season heads into its crucial phase, every point becomes increasingly significant. Dortmund cannot afford to drop more points, especially against a direct rival for European spots. The tactical battle between Kovač and Hoeneß will be fascinating, as both managers look to outmaneuver each other in what promises to be a high-intensity contest.

Ultimately, this match will be a true test of Dortmund’s resilience and ambition. Can they finally break their winless streak against Stuttgart and reignite their push for European football, or will Stuttgart continue their dominance and solidify their place in the upper echelons of the Bundesliga table? The answer will unfold in what is set to be a thrilling encounter at the Westfalenstadion.